Who will replace Biden?

[JoeWeber 2,808]

Just now, JerryBaumchen said:

Hi Joe,

If I were Zelensky, I would have a dozen or so of my best on their way to the US now.  They can buy what they would need here.

Jerry Baumchen

 

Let's talk mechanics. That's your expertise, right? So step by step without assumptions how does a new candidate get to the top of the ticket? Not who, how. Is it as simple as Biden announcing that he wasn't running but would finish his term? He'd have to make clear he wasn't supporting any candidate (read Kamala) and just let her be pissed, I guess. 

[JoeWeber 2,808]

Just now, gowlerk said:

Mostly the consumer confidence numbers being reported and the slowdown in hiring. Spending is slowing the last time I checked. However if it does come it may not be until after the election.

So you are backing away from your likelihood prediction? Wise move.

[Phil1111 1,149]

1 hour ago, JoeWeber said:

As BIGUN so aptly observed, I'd be happy to vote for a potato on a stick over Trump. The joy there is that we then would need only 83 million more potato lovers to win. We just might have them, still, in spite of George Clooney. Yes, Biden is old, frail, and is scaring the holy crap out of we who are totally freaked out about Trump ver. 2. But that does not mean it's beyond the realm of possibility that he can win. The world is far from out of outlier events. Just as the USSC put their honey dipped thumbs on the scale maybe the Fed takes a turn and pops out saying Bidenomics is working, inflation is now on a down trajectory so we're dropping interest rates .5% and expect another cut this year. Add that to the media waking up to the fact that it's Trumps meandering, disjointed, dangerous blathering that needs exposure and who knows? 

Joe's rosy view of US politics and institutions.

47 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

Or more likely it becomes clear by fall that the US has fallen into a recession.

Gets wrecked by Ken and reality.

[gowlerk 2,241]

1 minute ago, JoeWeber said:

So you are backing away from your likelihood prediction? Wise move.

A period of recession is likely. The exact timing is not known. It will bring the drop in interest rates you are speaking of. At a historical level the current rates are not particularly high.

[gowlerk 2,241]

3 minutes ago, Phil1111 said:

Joe's rosy view of US politics and institutions.

Gets wrecked by Ken and reality.

I’m still clear that the US economy is and will continue to lead the world. Even Trump won’t change that. 

[JerryBaumchen 1,422]

8 minutes ago, JoeWeber said:

Let's talk mechanics. That's your expertise, right? So step by step without assumptions how does a new candidate get to the top of the ticket? Not who, how. Is it as simple as Biden announcing that he wasn't running but would finish his term? He'd have to make clear he wasn't supporting any candidate (read Kamala) and just let her be pissed, I guess. 

Hi Joe,

I think you missed the gist of my post.

Jerry Baumchen

[Phil1111 1,149]

6 minutes ago, gowlerk said:

I’m still clear that the US economy is and will continue to lead the world. Even Trump won’t change that. 

Even if Trump starts a trade war with China and a real one with Iran? Iran is very close to nuclear weapons. They are undoubtedly trading their missiles to Russia for technology. Iranian proxies in Lebanon are pushing Israel closer and closer to war.

[JoeWeber 2,808]

Just now, JerryBaumchen said:

Hi Joe,

I think you missed the gist of my post.

Jerry Baumchen

Then explain, please. I'd be happy with a better candidate than Biden, too, I just see problems doing it clean and easy without Harris agreeing it's not her. That is an issue to overcome. So step by step how do you see the change happening?

[JoeWeber 2,808]

Just now, Phil1111 said:

Joe's rosy view of US politics and institutions.

Gets wrecked by Ken and reality.

Nah, Ken is no economist and now he's backtracking on his likelihood claim, and should. My point was simple: in a political day and age of fat thumbs there are more fat thumbs that might find the scale. The Fed is just one.

[JerryBaumchen 1,422]

1 minute ago, JoeWeber said:

Then explain, please. I'd be happy with a better candidate than Biden, too, I just see problems doing it clean and easy without Harris agreeing it's not her. That is an issue to overcome. So step by step how do you see the change happening?

Hi Joe,

Trump has said he will end the war in Ukraine on Day 1 once he is in office again.

IMO there is only one way to end it on 'Day 1.'

That would mean the end of Ukraine as we know it.

Just send enough guys to take out Mr. Mango & see who wins in Nov.

Jerry Baumchen

[JoeWeber 2,808]

Just now, JerryBaumchen said:

Hi Joe,

Trump has said he will end the war in Ukraine on Day 1 once he is in office again.

IMO there is only one way to end it on 'Day 1.'

That would mean the end of Ukraine as we know it.

Just send enough guys to take out Mr. Mango & see who wins in Nov.

Jerry Baumchen

???? I was asking how you'd change out Biden with as little friction as possible, not about Ukraine and Trump.

[gowlerk 2,241]

25 minutes ago, Phil1111 said:

Even if Trump starts a trade war with China and a real one with Iran? Iran is very close to nuclear weapons. They are undoubtedly trading their missiles to Russia for technology. Iranian proxies in Lebanon are pushing Israel closer and closer to war.

Yes, even then the US will continue to lead  and drive the world economy. Maybe even more so.

[gowlerk 2,241]

17 minutes ago, JoeWeber said:

???? I was asking how you'd change out Biden with as little friction as possible, not about Ukraine and Trump.

Biden has to bow out. Stating that he will not run if nominated. There will be some sort of floor fight at the convention. It will be very messy and may damage the eventual winner beyond repair. The nation may reject the nominee and split between RFJ and whoever leaving Trump to win. This is a time of great uncertainty.

[JerryBaumchen 1,422]

19 minutes ago, JoeWeber said:

???? I was asking how you'd change out Biden with as little friction as possible, not about Ukraine and Trump.

Hi Joe,

With my scenario, no need to replace Biden.

Jerry Baumchen

PS)  IMO, right now, unless someone can get to Joe & convince him, I think he will be the nominee.  

[brenthutch 444]

4 hours ago, SkyDekker said:

Why do you think States would spend that money on lower income area schools? They would just institute a voucher program and funnel it to private schools...at least the GOP sates would

The federal government could set parameters or they could leave it up to the laboratories of democracy to see who’s approach works best.

[JerryBaumchen 1,422]

Hi folks,

Looks like things are only going to get worse for Joe:  People wanted to give him the week because they didn’t want to do it while he’s hosting NATO. But post-NATO, a barrage of people are going to come out,” said a Democratic strategist who works closely with House Democrats. “They also want to see how the press conference goes, but it feels like no one is ever going to forget the debate so it doesn’t matter what he does. I don’t think there’s anything he can do to bring people back into the fold.

There’s a ‘big, big gulf’ between Biden’s inner circle and some White House, campaign aides - POLITICO

I also am of the belief that there is nothing he can do to turn around the debate performance.  That is what is etched into people's minds.

Jerry Baumchen

PS)  Biden is to be interviewed by Lester Holt/NBCNews on Monday.

 

[JoeWeber 2,808]

Just now, JerryBaumchen said:

Hi folks,

Looks like things are only going to get worse for Joe:  People wanted to give him the week because they didn’t want to do it while he’s hosting NATO. But post-NATO, a barrage of people are going to come out,” said a Democratic strategist who works closely with House Democrats. “They also want to see how the press conference goes, but it feels like no one is ever going to forget the debate so it doesn’t matter what he does. I don’t think there’s anything he can do to bring people back into the fold.

There’s a ‘big, big gulf’ between Biden’s inner circle and some White House, campaign aides - POLITICO

I also am of the belief that there is nothing he can do to turn around the debate performance.  That is what is etched into people's minds.

Jerry Baumchen

PS)  Biden is to be interviewed by Lester Holt/NBCNews on Monday.

 

I'm afraid you're right, it's the only thing the people who are paying attention now will think about. No one who was an early adopter of the "joe must go" mantra is likely to change their view, that's just human nature. As more join the  chorus more will feel right about joining the choir, also just human nature. 

[brenthutch 444]

3 hours ago, JoeWeber said:

Let's talk mechanics. That's your expertise, right? So step by step without assumptions how does a new candidate get to the top of the ticket? Not who, how. Is it as simple as Biden announcing that he wasn't running but would finish his term? He'd have to make clear he wasn't supporting any candidate (read Kamala) and just let her be pissed, I guess. 

It’s not just Kamala who will be pissed, it will be the block of black female and radical feminists who will be pissed. Without them the island of misfit toys coalition strategy falls on its face and Trump wins. It looks like the Ds are stuck with their DEI hire.

Edited July 11, 2024 by brenthutch

[JoeWeber 2,808]

Just now, brenthutch said:

It’s not just Kamala who will be pissed, it will be the block of black female and radical feminists who will be pissed. Without them the island of misfit toys coalition strategy falls on its face and Trump wins.

I wouldn't put it that way, but I can see how some might. Women have never been this close to being in the oval office. As Ginzburg showed, selfishness isn't the sole purview of men. Harris would need to bless any change that doesn't include being blessed as the heir apparent in a believable and very public way. The people who believe that she'd just go along with it to be a trooper are kidding themselves. She doesn't want Biden to not run. Her preferences are 1. he resigns and 2., that he runs, wins, and then by any useful expedient is caused to vacate the office. That's my read.

[brenthutch 444]

24 minutes ago, JoeWeber said:

I wouldn't put it that way, but I can see how some might. Women have never been this close to being in the oval office. As Ginzburg showed, selfishness isn't the sole purview of men. Harris would need to bless any change that doesn't include being blessed as the heir apparent in a believable and very public way. The people who believe that she'd just go along with it to be a trooper are kidding themselves. She doesn't want Biden to not run. Her preferences are 1. he resigns and 2., that he runs, wins, and then by any useful expedient is caused to vacate the office. That's my read.

Just watching CNN and a black Democrat strategist said there are only two candidates Biden and Harris. If Biden dumps an African/Indian American for a white guy they are done for.

 

 

 

 

 

[JerryBaumchen 1,422]

27 minutes ago, JoeWeber said:

I wouldn't put it that way, but I can see how some might. Women have never been this close to being in the oval office. As Ginzburg showed, selfishness isn't the sole purview of men. Harris would need to bless any change that doesn't include being blessed as the heir apparent in a believable and very public way. The people who believe that she'd just go along with it to be a trooper are kidding themselves. She doesn't want Biden to not run. Her preferences are 1. he resigns and 2., that he runs, wins, and then by any useful expedient is caused to vacate the office. That's my read.

Hi Joe,

I am of somewhat the same thinking.  I have long speculated that if Biden wins, he would resign about mid-term and we would have the first female Pres.  Of course, all of that is predicated on Biden winning; which, I doubt will happen.

Just a WAG,

Jerry Baumchen

[brenthutch 444]

14 minutes ago, JerryBaumchen said:

Hi Joe,

I am of somewhat the same thinking.  I have long speculated that if Biden wins, he would resign about mid-term and we would have the first female Pres.  Of course, all of that is predicated on Biden winning; which, I doubt will happen.

Just a WAG,

Jerry Baumchen

Is that really how you want the first female president? A DEI hire of a candidate who was rejected by her own party who was subsequently selected by an old white guy to shore up his support in the African American community.

[brenthutch 444]

The worst thing for the Ds is for Biden to get  C+ pass on the news conference tonight. 

[brenthutch 444]

We are soon (minutes away) from watching history folks!

[JerryBaumchen 1,422]

Hi folks,

I once read that Nancy Pelosi's strength lies in her efforts at fund-raising & campaigning for other Democrats.  They are very loyal to her.

Pelosi is also a pragmatist, with a keen eye on political trends and a killer instinct for winning.

Nancy Pelosi moving behind the scenes to get Joe Biden to reconsider presidential bid (thehill.com)

I can only hope that she will be successful.

Jerry Baumchen