Some of them get it -- Sullivan Before the Election

[olofscience 480]

On 11/10/2024 at 6:52 PM, base698 said:

Shutdown the Cathedral/Iron Polygon.  He's said it directly.

I would also like to know what this is.

[base698 14]

17 hours ago, SkyDekker said:

But Trump added more debt than the Biden administration.

Trump and Biden both were under administrations that printed a ton of money and had reckless spending.  Again, I voted for Elon who has been cheerleading fixing the budget everyday since mid summer (and had an exchange with Ron Paul about it) and Vance who acknowledged maybe the Fed needs some oversight and he's "come around" on the fed thing.

[base698 14]

15 hours ago, olofscience said:

I would also like to know what this is.

It's a play on this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_triangle_(US_politics) but adds the media and universities to it. 

[kallend 2,026]

1 hour ago, base698 said:

Trump and Biden both were under administrations that printed a ton of money and had reckless spending.  Again, I voted for Elon who has been cheerleading fixing the budget everyday since mid summer (and had an exchange with Ron Paul about it) and Vance who acknowledged maybe the Fed needs some oversight and he's "come around" on the fed thing.

Given the dismal record of every GOP administration since Nixon on the debt (including Trump 1), why do you think this time will be different?

[kallend 2,026]

When you look at the list of "giver" and "taker" states, it is very clear that the takers of federal largesse are primarily the red states (8 of the top 10 takers are red). 

I suspect Trump/Musk will get a lot of pushback from those takers when trying to cut federal spending.

[wolfriverjoe 1,523]

18 minutes ago, kallend said:

Given the dismal record of every GOP administration since Nixon on the debt (including Trump 1), why do you think this time will be different?

'Cuz Trumpty Dumpty's gonna put Elmo in charge.

The big difference is that he's likely to do to the US economy what he did to Xitter.

And so many who supported Donnie von Schitzenpants complained about how bad the economy was.

[base698 14]

9 minutes ago, kallend said:

Given the dismal record of every GOP administration since Nixon on the debt (including Trump 1), why do you think this time will be different?

If you want to get Baysian about it, I agree it's probably unlikely given the track record even with the strong signals (Elon, Vance).  I've see arguments that I don't fully grok, that the current make up of the government makes it basically impossible.

I'm hopeful since Vance has given it lip service, Elon being involved, and Trump not having to seek reelection they can do something.  Even if it's just shutting down everything on this list: https://randoland.us/
 

Elon started following the account today: https://x.com/Oilfield_Rando/status/1856697594233180267

[base698 14]

7 minutes ago, kallend said:

When you look at the list of "giver" and "taker" states, it is very clear that the takers of federal largesse are primarily the red states (8 of the top 10 takers are red). 

The pushback will be even worse when the VC firms, hedge funds, and banks that reside in blue states aren't getting free money to swim in.

[olofscience 480]

22 minutes ago, base698 said:

The pushback will be even worse when the VC firms, hedge funds, and banks that reside in blue states aren't getting free money to swim in.

Not sure you understand where VCs and hedge funds get money from, but I'll be bookmarking this to return to in a few years.

[JoeWeber 2,720]

54 minutes ago, base698 said:

If you want to get Baysian about it,

OFFS, all you need to do is get simple recent history about it.

[kallend 2,026]

2 hours ago, base698 said:

If you want to get Baysian about it,  

Not so much Bayesian so much as awareness of the definition of insanity:  doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.

[SkyDekker 1,465]

4 hours ago, base698 said:

Trump and Biden both were under administrations that printed a ton of money and had reckless spending.  Again, I voted for Elon who has been cheerleading fixing the budget everyday since mid summer (and had an exchange with Ron Paul about it) and Vance who acknowledged maybe the Fed needs some oversight and he's "come around" on the fed thing.

Ahh yes, cheering for the efficiency department with two leaders.

Two leaders for one department is the gold standard of efficiency!

[base698 14]

3 hours ago, olofscience said:

Not sure you understand where VCs and hedge funds get money from, but I'll be bookmarking this to return to in a few years.

 Low interest rates and an abundance of money from the Federal Reserve make capital more accessible and cheaper, which tends to lead to more aggressive investment strategies by venture capital (VC) and hedge funds. When borrowing costs are low, there’s an incentive for investors to seek higher returns in riskier or less established ventures, which they might avoid in a tighter monetary environment.

In addition, QE causes inflated asset prices gives them more capital to work with. 

[billvon 2,990]

1 hour ago, SkyDekker said:

Ahh yes, cheering for the efficiency department with two leaders.

Two leaders for one department is the gold standard of efficiency!

It will be even more efficient that way, and will soon become the Efficient Department of Efficiency.  Of course they will need tons of funding to make the changes they need to make the US more efficient.  

[JerryBaumchen 1,362]

5 hours ago, kallend said:

When you look at the list of "giver" and "taker" states, it is very clear that the takers of federal largesse are primarily the red states (8 of the top 10 takers are red). 

I suspect Trump/Musk will get a lot of pushback from those takers when trying to cut federal spending.

Hi John,

It all comes down to this:  It is all well and good until it is your ox that is getting gored.

Jerry Baumchen

[olofscience 480]

1 hour ago, base698 said:

 Low interest rates and an abundance of money from the Federal Reserve make capital more accessible and cheaper, which tends to lead to more aggressive investment strategies by venture capital (VC) and hedge funds. When borrowing costs are low, there’s an incentive for investors to seek higher returns in riskier or less established ventures, which they might avoid in a tighter monetary environment.

In addition, QE causes inflated asset prices gives them more capital to work with. 

Oh, I'm definitely aware of that.

But...do you remember what Trump wanted? Zero or negative interest rates. Back in 2019.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-11/trump-calls-on-fed-to-cut-interest-rates-to-zero-or-less

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/11/business/economy/bonehead-trump-jay-powell.html

 

I'm not saying that voting Democrat would make things better for most people - they won't. For VCs and Hedge funds, it's heads they win, tails you lose.

They'll win, no matter who you vote for.

Years later you'll be looking for another outsider, the crazier the better. Then they'll win while leftists like me keep despairing why people don't vote for our non-solutions.

Edited November 13, 2024 by olofscience

[jakee 1,489]

7 hours ago, base698 said:

It's a play on this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_triangle_(US_politics) but adds the media and universities to it. 

Sure - as a one man interest group it certainly benefits Musk to cut out any other corners in the diagram. An iron straight line between him and the government money fountain would be much more ‘efficient’

[SkyDekker 1,465]

3 minutes ago, olofscience said:

I'm not saying that voting Democrat would make things better for most people - they won't. For VCs and Hedge funds, it's heads they win, tails you lose.

They'll win, no matter who you vote for.

Private equity and venture capital portfolio companies accounted for 16% of US bankruptcies in 2023 and through 2024 to date.

2023 saw over 100 of them go bankrupt.

[SkyDekker 1,465]

3 minutes ago, jakee said:

Sure - as a one man interest group it certainly benefits Musk to cut out any other corners in the diagram. An iron straight line between him and the government money fountain would be much more ‘efficient’

Privatizing the US military would be the most efficient thing to do. Break it up into multiple parts, set up various private armies, air forces and navies and let them compete against each other.

[olofscience 480]

1 minute ago, SkyDekker said:

Private equity and venture capital portfolio companies accounted for 16% of US bankruptcies in 2023 and through 2024 to date.

2023 saw over 100 of them go bankrupt.

I was being too specific, I guess - I think base698's meaning is generally "the rich" and hedge funds and VCs were just the representatives.

In any case, I meant the rich - the rich will win, no matter who you vote for. Even bankruptcy is just a tool used by the rich to avoid liabilities.

[billvon 2,990]

1 minute ago, SkyDekker said:

Privatizing the US military would be the most efficient thing to do. Break it up into multiple parts, set up various private armies, air forces and navies and let them compete against each other.

Not even that.  Just disband the military, and if we ever need one, hire contractors.  The invisible hand of the free market will make the US military both the strongest and cheapest in the world, AND the most profitable!

[SkyDekker 1,465]

1 minute ago, olofscience said:

I was being too specific, I guess - I think base698's meaning is generally "the rich" and hedge funds and VCs were just the representatives.

In any case, I meant the rich - the rich will win, no matter who you vote for. Even bankruptcy is just a tool used by the rich to avoid liabilities.

There is a reason bankruptcies are relatively easy to get in the US. It spurns on investment and innovation by reducing risk. The same for VC and PE.

[SkyDekker 1,465]

2 minutes ago, billvon said:

Not even that.  Just disband the military, and if we ever need one, hire contractors.  The invisible hand of the free market will make the US military both the strongest and cheapest in the world, AND the most profitable!

Agreed. The next efficiency item would be to euthanize anybody who gets sick and has less than a 5 or 10  year average lifespan left. Those people cost society more than they contribute. Eliminating them is an extremely efficient way to free up resourcing.

[kallend 2,026]

15 hours ago, JerryBaumchen said:

Hi John,

It all comes down to this:  It is all well and good until it is your ox that is getting gored.

Jerry Baumchen

Looking at voting patterns vs educational level, I doubt many Trump supporters realize that it is their ox he's going to gore.

[tkhayes 348]

On 11/9/2024 at 7:49 AM, base698 said:

Everyone here was trying to put words in my mouth on why I voted for Trump. You parroted standard points that you think right-leaning people use to justify their support of trump without first even asking me. With the exception of Wendy who is a master class of how you have a conversation.  You don't yell news, talking points and invent phantoms that aren't there or call people rapist supporters.  If that's your reaction on how to talk to people then you need to log off the internet and unplug the TV and read some books. Go on a walk. 

The context of when I said I don't care about these issues are that was not what motivated me to vote for Trump. Not that I don't care about immigrants. I'm not sure if you're arguing in bad faith or that's what you really thought, but either way it's a pretty awful demonstration of reading comprehension.

And if you want to have that conversation. If you look at the border towns, they voted overwhelmingly in support of trump even in communities with high immigrant populations.

you still voted for the guy who will bring misery to millions, will take away women's rights (and already did), and who is a convicted felon.  There are no other 'redeeming qualities' that override those things.  

That's like using my Uncle Fred analogy.... My Uncle Fred is a great guy.  He would drive your mom to the doctor, would give you his last $20 in his wallet, would come over any time to help you with any project.... but he has this problem with fiddling with little girls.... but yeah, other than the child molester thing - he's a great guy!

20 years from now, NO ONE will admit they voted for Trump..... just like Nixon.