BIGUN 1,328 #51 September 20, 2009 QuoteAre highly experienced jumpers actually more likely to die on any given jump or do they just jump more? QuoteIt doesn't matter. 1 jump or 10,000 jumps - the "likely" is the same. QuoteAre you suggesting that the probability of a single skydive resulting in death does not change as a jumper's experience and knowledge changes? Yep QuoteI'm not sure I agree. That's OK. I been making folks disagreeable for about thirty years now and I'm 3rd generation, "Irritating." What say we forgo the statistics class since it's been done on here before and be as safe as we can whilst having fun.Nobody has time to listen; because they're desperately chasing the need of being heard. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
airtwardo 7 #52 September 20, 2009 So what yer sayin' is... statistics don't matter much below 2 grand at terminal? ~ If you choke a Smurf, what color does it turn? ~ Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BIGUN 1,328 #53 September 20, 2009 Quote So what yer sayin' is... statistics don't matter much below 2 grand at terminal? I'd say the odds are about 1.5 billion:1 that statistics will be the last thing going through your mind. Nobody has time to listen; because they're desperately chasing the need of being heard. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jcd11235 0 #54 September 20, 2009 QuoteWhat say we forgo the statistics class since it's been done on here before and be as safe as we can whilst having fun. Or, we could look at things accurately and realistically and be as safe as we can whilst having fun. The skydive has no memory, thus each skydive is an independent event. The skydiver, OTOH, does have a memory, so the potential for doing (or not doing) something that can result in death can potentially change from jump to jump.Math tutoring available. Only $6! per hour! First lesson: Factorials! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BIGUN 1,328 #55 September 20, 2009 Quote The skydive has no memory, thus each skydive is an independent event. The skydiver, OTOH, does have a memory, so the is potential for doing (or not doing) something that can result in death can potentially change from jump to jump. Okie dokie... so we went right from discrete random variables into continuous random variables. Shall we walk through all the independent random variables or jump right into Bayes? Cause if we're gonna take that walk; I'm gonna need to fix a drink. Nobody has time to listen; because they're desperately chasing the need of being heard. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jcd11235 0 #56 September 20, 2009 Quote Quote The skydive has no memory, thus each skydive is an independent event. The skydiver, OTOH, does have a memory, so the potential for doing (or not doing) something that can result in death can potentially change from jump to jump. Okie dokie... so we went right from discrete random variables into continuous random variables. Shall we walk through all the independent random variables or jump right into Bayes? Cause if we're gonna take that walk; I'm gonna need to fix a drink. I was thinking it would be nice exercise in regression analysis. How many independent variables do you think we have? Let's see, there's jump numbers, time in sport, number of jumps made at home drop zone annually, canopy size, age, …. We could also set up some dummy variables for skydiving discipline, student progression type, etc. Perhaps you'd better make that drink a double. Math tutoring available. Only $6! per hour! First lesson: Factorials! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BIGUN 1,328 #57 September 20, 2009 I'll fix you one too. Headline: Drunk Skydivers Arrested after Statistics Altercation. What are the odds of that (couldn't resist). Nobody has time to listen; because they're desperately chasing the need of being heard. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
airtwardo 7 #58 September 20, 2009 Quote I'll fix you one too. Headline: Drunk Skydivers Arrested after Statistics Altercation. What are the odds of that (couldn't resist). I'll put a c-note on the tall bald guy! ~ If you choke a Smurf, what color does it turn? ~ Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
popsjumper 2 #59 September 20, 2009 Yes, I'd say it was odd alright. My reality and yours are quite different. I think we're all Bozos on this bus. Falcon5232, SCS8170, SCSA353, POPS9398, DS239 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
popsjumper 2 #60 September 20, 2009 Quote ..I'll put a c-note on the tall bald guy! Gimme 67 points and I'll take the other team. Meh, maybe not. My reality and yours are quite different. I think we're all Bozos on this bus. Falcon5232, SCS8170, SCSA353, POPS9398, DS239 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jcd11235 0 #61 September 21, 2009 Quote I'll fix you one too. Cuba libre, unmixed, hold the lime, please. Quote What are the odds of that (couldn't resist). Uh, better make mine a double, also. Math tutoring available. Only $6! per hour! First lesson: Factorials! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dks13827 3 #62 September 21, 2009 One cannot always prevent some clown crashing into one.......... that is understood. I will spell it out for you.... jumping a 79 canopy, or any highly loaded canopy, is optional and adds great risk. So does the impressive swooping manuveur. That's all I was trying to convey. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BIGUN 1,328 #63 September 21, 2009 QuoteYour profile says you've been skydiving for 3 years. I wouldn't characterize your experience as "many years". Oh YEAH!?!?!? Well, your profile says you only got one year's experience - thirty times. And, what's with the pterodactyl lookin avatar... since I been gone. I kinda liked the Texas flag one.Nobody has time to listen; because they're desperately chasing the need of being heard. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Reginald 0 #64 September 21, 2009 Quote So i guess my question is, Have you who have been in this sport for years feel like after a long time of jumping you percieve skydiving as minimal risk?? The longer I'm in the sport the more funerals I go to and the more crippling, life changing injuries of close personal friends I see. Many of these people did nothing wrong and everything right. So to answer your question, "No.""We've been looking for the enemy for some time now. We've finally found him. We're surrounded. That simplifies things." CP Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
pirana 0 #65 September 21, 2009 Quite the opposite. The longer I participate the more dangers I see. Which is to say, the more I know, the more I know about things that can go worng. I've often thought that if new students actually knew about all the things that could go wrong, far fewer would enter the sport. I also guess that some quit once they realize how dangerous it is. It's one of the reasons I am disappointeed when I hear talk of needing to go mainstream, or needing to appeal more to the mainstream. I don't think we should try too hard to attract those on the fringe ability-wise. It takes a certain mindset to acknowledge and properly manage the risks. It is a long long ways from what most people think of as safe. The consequence of error is severe, even if the incidence of a life threatening event are relatively low as a percentage of all jumps. As an aside, big on the plus side is that it has very positively impacted the way I engage in other activities. When engaged in other fun (fireworks, motorsport, etc) I'll mention something and point out the risk and people sometimes notice the diligence; "Hmm, never thought of that possibility" kind of thing." . . . the lust for power can be just as completely satisfied by suggesting people into loving their servitude as by flogging them and kicking them into obedience." -- Aldous Huxley Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
tbrown 26 #66 September 21, 2009 I feel very safe and comfortable the moment I leave the plane. with time and experience you do build up confidence, which is good. But it can also breed complacency. When things go wrong, they go wrong really FAST. You can go from "yahoo" to "oh my god" in fractions of a second. There will be jumps that will scare the holy living crap out of you and make you wonder why you ever got into this sport. I'm guessing you just haven't had one of those yet. But don't worry - you will. Your humble servant.....Professor Gravity ! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NWFlyer 2 #67 September 21, 2009 It's kind of a double-edged sword. The longer I'm in the sport (and at just over 5 years, I haven't been around very long, I realize) the more I learn about all the things that can possibly go wrong and all the ways in which they can possibly go wrong. That gives me a healthier respect for exactly what I'm accepting when I say "I'm accepting the risk" but it also gives me pause sometimes as it all really, truly sinks in. On the flip side, gaining a deeper understanding of the risks helps me to better identify the part I can play in minimizing risks, and have an even healthier respect for the rules/guidelines that are put in place to try to keep all of us safe around each other."There is only one basic human right, the right to do as you damn well please. And with it comes the only basic human duty, the duty to take the consequences." -P.J. O'Rourke Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Granimal 0 #68 September 21, 2009 It is a huge risk! Although my personal experience in the sport certainly does not reflect any general statistics, I have lost more friends to skydiving than any other non-natural cause, except motorcycles. Each time, people were forced to evaluate the risk vs. reward, and each time some people left the sport as a result. I remember exactly what it was like to think how safe the sport is. However, now the more I see, the riskier I think it is. There has been more than one occasion where I could have easily died. An engine loss 200 feet after takeoff, drogue in tow on a tandem that the reserve wrapped around before inflating, and near miss midair canopy collisions. I don't even try to talk anyone into learning to skydive anymore. Of course I support anyone who decides to become a skydiver on their own and will encourage and/or teach them to the best of my ability. In the end, the risk vs. reward thing is an individual decision. But maybe that is just a selfish way of preventing me from blaming myself if anything happens. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
champu 1 #69 September 21, 2009 QuoteThe skydive has no memory, thus each skydive is an independent event. The skydiver, OTOH, does have a memory... There's no such thing as a "skydive" without a skydiver, so these statements seem somewhat at odds. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jcd11235 0 #70 September 21, 2009 QuoteQuoteThe skydive has no memory, thus each skydive is an independent event. The skydiver, OTOH, does have a memory... There's no such thing as a "skydive" without a skydiver, so these statements seem somewhat at odds. So, how would you phrase the explanation that each skydive is an independent event, but any particular skydive does not necessarily have the same probability of resulting in a fatality as the previous one (or one made 500 jumps previous) due to the lessons learned or knowledge obtained in the interim? As an example, I would suggest that a skydiver that seeks out and gets canopy coaching from a qualified coach (e.g. Scott Miller, Brian Germain) increases his probability of survival compared to before receiving such coaching.Math tutoring available. Only $6! per hour! First lesson: Factorials! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ufk22 33 #71 September 21, 2009 As an example, I would suggest that a skydiver that seeks out and gets canopy coaching from a qualified coach (e.g. Scott Miller, Brian Germain) increases his probability of survival compared to before receiving such coaching. Quote Or, I could suggest that the skydiver thats seeks out coaching (so he can downsize quickly to a sub-100' canopy loaded at 2+:1 and feels the need to do the really impressive swoops) decreases his probability of survival.This is the paradox of skydiving. We do something very dangerous, expose ourselves to a totally unnecesary risk, and then spend our time trying to make it safer. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites jcd11235 0 #72 September 21, 2009 QuoteQuoteAs an example, I would suggest that a skydiver that seeks out and gets canopy coaching from a qualified coach (e.g. Scott Miller, Brian Germain) increases his probability of survival compared to before receiving such coaching. Or, I could suggest that the skydiver thats seeks out coaching (so he can downsize quickly to a sub-100' canopy loaded at 2+:1 and feels the need to do the really impressive swoops) decreases his probability of survival. Those are two separate actions: 1. getting coaching and 2. downsizing. Both can affect the probability of surviving a jump, further supporting my point.Math tutoring available. Only $6! per hour! First lesson: Factorials! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites BDashe 0 #73 September 22, 2009 QuoteQuoteQuoteAs an example, I would suggest that a skydiver that seeks out and gets canopy coaching from a qualified coach (e.g. Scott Miller, Brian Germain) increases his probability of survival compared to before receiving such coaching. Or, I could suggest that the skydiver thats seeks out coaching (so he can downsize quickly to a sub-100' canopy loaded at 2+:1 and feels the need to do the really impressive swoops) decreases his probability of survival. Those are two separate actions: 1. getting coaching and 2. downsizing. Both can affect the probability of surviving a jump, further supporting my point. Agreed. also agree with what JohnMitchell said earlier on. of the over half dozen or so people that i have known who arent with us anymore, all but one include some kind of canopy collision or avoidance type maneuver with an otherwise perfect main. the risk of a double malfunction, every whuffo's concept of all skydiving deaths, is there just not nearly as frequent as the other shit that will kill you after you have a perfect and happy canopy over your head. That's not to say there aren't other dangerous aspects of skydiving to be very aware of, of course. Just my experience thus far in our little universe wrt injury/fatalities is after a good canopy opens. Seems applicable since the OP was hinting at a double mal type scenario. edit: grammarSo there I was... Making friends and playing nice since 1983 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites nigel99 507 #74 September 22, 2009 QuoteQuoteThe skydive has no memory, thus each skydive is an independent event. The skydiver, OTOH, does have a memory... There's no such thing as a "skydive" without a skydiver, so these statements seem somewhat at odds. By now means scientific or based on analysis but from "gut feel" and reading the incident reports I would say that skydiving risk has a number of variables - some of the key variables being: Experience Number of Jumpers on load Individuals attitude and aptitude Any "advanced" disciplines Wing-loading Risk = ((1/Exp)+Jumpers^x + Attitude + Discipline)^y*Wing-loading I believe that if an experienced jumper did solo hop and pops from altitude on a lightly loaded modern parachute they would be exposed to very little risk, as you start adding free-flying, more jumpers, higher wing-loading the risk starts to rise quite sharply.Experienced jumper - someone who has made mistakes more often than I have and lived. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites tbrown 26 #75 September 22, 2009 I also think the perception of risk is very important here as well. Just reading enough of these comments, which are truthful, is enough to make me think, "sheeesh.....". The perception of little risk, combined with the rewards of the excitement, great beauty, a better sex life, whatever else it does, or you believe it does for you increases our comfort zones. As long as nobody's doing anything obviously stupid, things will usually turn out alright and we feel great about it. While it's true that somebody quits every time somebody else goes in, it's also true that the rest of us who decide to stick around feel a lot better about it after as little as one jump. We hit the air, it feels familiar, we don't do anything too stupid, the dive turns out okay, and we feel good about it again. I think that perception of feeling safe is the only thing that makes it possible for us to do it at all, let alone hundreds or thousands of times. Your humble servant.....Professor Gravity ! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites Prev 1 2 3 Next Page 3 of 3 Join the conversation You can post now and register later. 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jcd11235 0 #72 September 21, 2009 QuoteQuoteAs an example, I would suggest that a skydiver that seeks out and gets canopy coaching from a qualified coach (e.g. Scott Miller, Brian Germain) increases his probability of survival compared to before receiving such coaching. Or, I could suggest that the skydiver thats seeks out coaching (so he can downsize quickly to a sub-100' canopy loaded at 2+:1 and feels the need to do the really impressive swoops) decreases his probability of survival. Those are two separate actions: 1. getting coaching and 2. downsizing. Both can affect the probability of surviving a jump, further supporting my point.Math tutoring available. Only $6! per hour! First lesson: Factorials! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BDashe 0 #73 September 22, 2009 QuoteQuoteQuoteAs an example, I would suggest that a skydiver that seeks out and gets canopy coaching from a qualified coach (e.g. Scott Miller, Brian Germain) increases his probability of survival compared to before receiving such coaching. Or, I could suggest that the skydiver thats seeks out coaching (so he can downsize quickly to a sub-100' canopy loaded at 2+:1 and feels the need to do the really impressive swoops) decreases his probability of survival. Those are two separate actions: 1. getting coaching and 2. downsizing. Both can affect the probability of surviving a jump, further supporting my point. Agreed. also agree with what JohnMitchell said earlier on. of the over half dozen or so people that i have known who arent with us anymore, all but one include some kind of canopy collision or avoidance type maneuver with an otherwise perfect main. the risk of a double malfunction, every whuffo's concept of all skydiving deaths, is there just not nearly as frequent as the other shit that will kill you after you have a perfect and happy canopy over your head. That's not to say there aren't other dangerous aspects of skydiving to be very aware of, of course. Just my experience thus far in our little universe wrt injury/fatalities is after a good canopy opens. Seems applicable since the OP was hinting at a double mal type scenario. edit: grammarSo there I was... Making friends and playing nice since 1983 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nigel99 507 #74 September 22, 2009 QuoteQuoteThe skydive has no memory, thus each skydive is an independent event. The skydiver, OTOH, does have a memory... There's no such thing as a "skydive" without a skydiver, so these statements seem somewhat at odds. By now means scientific or based on analysis but from "gut feel" and reading the incident reports I would say that skydiving risk has a number of variables - some of the key variables being: Experience Number of Jumpers on load Individuals attitude and aptitude Any "advanced" disciplines Wing-loading Risk = ((1/Exp)+Jumpers^x + Attitude + Discipline)^y*Wing-loading I believe that if an experienced jumper did solo hop and pops from altitude on a lightly loaded modern parachute they would be exposed to very little risk, as you start adding free-flying, more jumpers, higher wing-loading the risk starts to rise quite sharply.Experienced jumper - someone who has made mistakes more often than I have and lived. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
tbrown 26 #75 September 22, 2009 I also think the perception of risk is very important here as well. Just reading enough of these comments, which are truthful, is enough to make me think, "sheeesh.....". The perception of little risk, combined with the rewards of the excitement, great beauty, a better sex life, whatever else it does, or you believe it does for you increases our comfort zones. As long as nobody's doing anything obviously stupid, things will usually turn out alright and we feel great about it. While it's true that somebody quits every time somebody else goes in, it's also true that the rest of us who decide to stick around feel a lot better about it after as little as one jump. We hit the air, it feels familiar, we don't do anything too stupid, the dive turns out okay, and we feel good about it again. I think that perception of feeling safe is the only thing that makes it possible for us to do it at all, let alone hundreds or thousands of times. Your humble servant.....Professor Gravity ! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
