Giving advices here and WL hype

[Frenchy68 0]

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You played with my numbers before. What is the arerage chance of a reserve ride? 1:1000? How would it go with my jump numers in the next 6,5 years?

That line is a classic. Can I use it?As of now, I'm in the 10% bracket. Hopefully, my next jump will lower that percentage. Hopefully.

"For once you have tasted Absinthe you will walk the earth with your eyes turned towards the gutter, for there you have been and there you will long to return."

[mjosparky 4]

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You played with my numbers before. What is the arerage chance of a reserve ride? 1:1000? How would it go with my jump numers in the next 6,5 years?

I don't think you understand. Your reserve will still be overloaded in 15 years if you your exit weight remains the same.

The Cricket is a 145 sq. ft. canopy that is designed and tested to be safe at 160 pounds max. not 200 pounds. All the reasons in the world will not change this fact. If you dump your reserve at terminal there is a good chance you will retire from skydiving shortly there after.

Sparky

My idea of a fair fight is clubbing baby seals

[kevinwhelan 0]

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As a Skydiving instructor, I'll help my students deal with their fear, but I cannot teach them to be brave.

If they say "I can't do this.." then they're right, and they'll ride the plane down. The advice given earlier, "Just don't think about it too much" is VERY, VERY dangerous advice. It's the start of "I'll be fine... Lalalalalala" that leads to wasted seconds of shock and suspended belief when you are not fine, and you have the rest of your life to solve your problem, which may be about 12 seconds, but is probably way less.

Think about it A LOT. Think about the consequences of not making the right decision, or of performing the wrong action for the event you're experiencing. Think about rigor mortis, and of your friends keeping the birds away from your remains scattered over 100 feet as they wander about with small plastic bags picking up peices while dealing with the grim but amazing realities of the physics and the constant surprise at that bit of you having made it all the way to where they're standing.

Think about the consequences of failure.

The above is taken from a post by Tonto in another thread.
I have found the fear that plain talking like this can induce to be a real wake up call, it has caused me torealy think about skydiving and if its for me.
I jump very little, and the weather here in Ireland dosent help, I have never been what you could call current. I havent jumped now in 7 months
but will be jumping in two weeks time, before after a long layoff when I would go back to do a few jumps someone would say "come on a four way"
I might say "no I think I will do a solo first" and often get the reply "oh you'll be fine" and off I'd go.
Not any more When I go back it will be my 100th jump next and we had planed a four way , but after reading these fourms and thinking about the real results of my posible failure, my 100th jump is now going to be a static line jump.

so the point I am making is if the plain truth scares you you like me in the past are guilty of complancy and the "I'll be fine... Lalalalalala" mentality

BTY thanks Tonto

"be honest with yourself. Why do I want to go smaller? It is not going to make my penis longer." ~Brian Germain, on downsizing

[davelepka 4]

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You played with my numbers before. What is the arerage chance of a reserve ride? 1:1000? How would it go with my jump numers in the next 6,5 years?

Are you kidding me?

Well, the bad news for you is that I have 4000 jumps, and no cutaways. By your math, there are four cutaways out there looking for a jumper.

There are threads about how many cutaways people have had. Do a search and you'll see that many jumpers have had several cutaways within a few hundred jumps.

In regards to your main, if you're scared of it, get rid of it. Don't get rid of the people making you scared, get rid of the canopy.

[Orange1 0]

Similar thinking to what Kevin said. After my FJC I was thinking: hey, this is really a safe sport! Then, after reading here I also got a lot of fear build-up - especially after reading how really experienced jumpers with great reputations for safety still get hurt or worse - but I don't think it's "unnecessary" fear - I'm just a lot more aware of what can go wrong and, as importantly, what I can do to try prevent it. Whether that's to do with wingloading, jumping in strong winds, routing chest straps correctly, whatever.

While I do always defer to my instructors, the answers to questions by me and other newbies as well as other threads have been invaluable. You can only take a calculated risk if you know what the calculations involved in that risk actually are... (like, # of jumps + currency + state of equipment + WL + winds etc etc)

And I must say I find the argument about 'chances of a reserve ride happening to me' irrelevant at best, scary at worst. Doesn't matter, if you ask me, whether it's 1 in 300, 1000 or 10000. imho on EVERY jump you should be prepared for the possibility that it will be the one you need to use your reserve on. I think "it'll never happen to me" is a very dangerous mindset to have in a sport like this.

Just my $0.02

Skydiving: wasting fossil fuels just for fun.

[phoenixlpr 0]

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Are you kidding me?

Well, the bad news for you is that I have 4000 jumps, and no cutaways. By your math, there are four cutaways out there looking for a jumper.

I can borrow you some. I have more than needed. :)

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In regards to your main, if you're scared of it, get rid of it. Don't get rid of the people making you scared, get rid of the canopy.

I was overreacting. As I have written I can handle it fine, but I have a lot to learn.

[phoenixlpr 0]

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While I do always defer to my instructors, the answers to questions by me and other newbies as well as other threads have been invaluable. You can only take a calculated risk if you know what the calculations involved in that risk actually are... (like, # of jumps + currency + state of equipment + WL + winds etc etc)

Calculate? Estimate would be better.

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And I must say I find the argument about 'chances of a reserve ride happening to me' irrelevant at best, scary at worst. Doesn't matter, if you ask me, whether it's 1 in 300, 1000 or 10000. imho on EVERY jump you should be prepared for the possibility that it will be the one you need to use your reserve on. I think "it'll never happen to me" is a very dangerous mindset to have in a sport like this.

???
I`ve written about one even in this thread. Have you read the first post?

[Ron 10]

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And I must say I find the argument about 'chances of a reserve ride happening to me' irrelevant at best, scary at worst. Doesn't matter, if you ask me, whether it's 1 in 300, 1000 or 10000. imho on EVERY jump you should be prepared for the possibility that it will be the one you need to use your reserve on. I think "it'll never happen to me" is a very dangerous mindset to have in a sport like this.

Very smart mindset.

"No free man shall ever be debarred the use of arms." -- Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Jefferson Papers, 334

[Orange1 0]

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Have you read the first post?

yes I did - but I guess I got confused by this bit afterwards ...

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You played with my numbers before. What is the arerage chance of a reserve ride? 1:1000? How would it go with my jump numers in the next 6,5 years?

calculations can be estimates too you know ... and anyway, an estimate is better than nothing.

Skydiving: wasting fossil fuels just for fun.

[phoenixlpr 0]

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The Cricket is a 145 sq. ft. canopy that is designed and tested to be safe at 160 pounds max. not 200 pounds. All the reasons in the world will not change this fact. If you dump your reserve at terminal there is a good chance you will retire from skydiving shortly there after.

MRMSW is 176 pounds. 194 is a bit more.

Manufacturer’s Recommended Maximum Suspended Weight
(defined as: Jumper + Clothing + Equipment) jumping in near perfect
conditions.

From the Warning label:
APPROVED UNDER TSO C23c FOR CATEGORY “A”
THIS PARACHUTE IS LIMITED TO PERSONS UP TO 90KG
(198 LBS) FULLY EQUIPED, AND UP TO 130 KNOTS.

[skybytch 273]

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I was not even planning to use it for the first time either.

I plan to use mine on every skydive. I'm happy when I don't have to.

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If my rigger is telling its time to retire it I`ll do so and buy a proper one.

One more time then I'll go take an aspirin for my headache. It's not the landing, or even the age (other than it's age tells instantly that it is not reinforced).

You are loading that reserve far beyond what the manufacturer said was the maximum weight. Other people have died when they had to open a reserve like yours loaded like you are loading yours at terminal velocity. Their choice of "last chance" canopy killed them.

You didn't want to land a Merit 170 with 4 broken lines, so you cut it away and opened that Cricket subterminal.

Would you like to land that Cricket with 4 broken lines? Should you need to deploy your reserve at terminal you are risking that or worse.

Smart skydivers don't rely on luck.

Maybe two aspirin...

[phoenixlpr 0]

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You are loading that reserve far beyond what the manufacturer said was the maximum weight. Other people have died when they had to open a reserve like yours loaded like you are loading yours at terminal velocity. Their choice of "last chance" canopy killed them. [/qoute]
Check my prevous post of FC pages.

***You didn't want to land a Merit 170 with 4 broken lines, so you cut it away and opened that Cricket subterminal.

4 lines were gone from the left rear line group and it has started turning. AFAK a canopy with 4 broken lines is not landable. Some people died solving things like that....

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Would you like to land that Cricket with 4 broken lines? Should you need to deploy your reserve at terminal you are risking that or worse.

I had one ride on a PdF Magic. It was flying really bad.
Do you have more choice under a reserve?

[Zenister 0]

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I was not even planning to use it for the first time either.

I plan to use mine on every skydive. I'm happy when I don't have to.

its the only canopy i rely on, which is why i'm equally picky about who packs it..sure every rigger may be qualified, but i'd rather know and trust implicitly the one who packs mine... they main i'll take chances with but my reserve??

i've always found it a bit strange that most reserves are significantly cheaper new than an equally modern main and i'll never understood why anyone would 'cut costs' by jumping anything less than one of the latest most reliable canopies available for their 'last chance'

____________________________________
Those who fail to learn from the past are simply Doomed.

[kallend 2,027]

The likelihood that you will have another reserve ride?

Interesting question.

Taking the ParaGear number of 1 in 300 jumps leading to a reserve ride, and figuring that reserve rides distribute according to a Poisson distribution (appropriate for this kind of event), in 200 jumps like you have made, we would expect out of a random selection of 100 skydivers:

51 to have had no reserve ride
34 to have had 1 reserve ride
11 to have had 2 reserve rides
3 to have had 3 reserve rides
1 to have had more than 3 reserve rides.


By the time you get to 1,000 jumps we would expect, out of 100 randomly selected skydivers:

4 to have had no reserve ride
12 to have had 1 reserve ride
20 to have had 2 reserve rides
22 to have had 3 reserve rides
18 to have had 4 reserve rides
12 to have had 5 reserve rides
12 to have had more than 5 reserve rides

...

The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[Scrumpot 1]

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Sorry you don't understand.

Unfortunately though Dave, I have absolutely no doubt that most assuredly, someday he WILL.

Blues,
-Grant

coitus non circum - Moab Stone

[jlmiracle 7]

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Well done boys.......you have a success to plant fear in others mind. It`s really nice to save us not to commit those faults that you managed to gain experience.

I'm kinda confused by your post, not 100% sure what you are trying to say but from what i can figure out this is my reply...

Your first mistake was believing everything you read on the internet. There is a very recent post by the the god of all skygods that is bad information, but I can't get a moderator delete it, or move it and have the super skygod clarify.

My suggestion is talking face to face with your instructors at your dropzone, they know you better than they do on here.

Most everyone experiences fear no matter how many jumps they have and regardless of what the internet said.

Judy

Be kinder than necessary because everyone you meet is fighting some kind of battle.

[Scrumpot 1]

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Do you have more choice under a reserve?

Yes. ...Don't put yourself in that relative exposure to be there, under THAT reserve as such, IN THE FIRST PLACE!

Like I've already seen SEVERAL of these nice people try to HELP you (advise you, TELL you ...whatever you want to call it). But if you apparently already have all the answers and the "comebacks" for yourself, then why do you continue to ASK? As someone else ALSO has already said, just "carry on" then.

Unfortunately it seems, and as YOU have even yourself pointed out (if not simply just reinforced/illustrated here)... your attitude is typical.

Some of us just desparately wish it wasn't. But I won't "debate" you. Your mind is quite clearly already closed.

Hope you survive.
Blues,
-Grant

coitus non circum - Moab Stone

[nicknitro71 0]

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From the Warning label:
APPROVED UNDER TSO C23c FOR CATEGORY “A”
THIS PARACHUTE IS LIMITED TO PERSONS UP TO 90KG
(198 LBS) FULLY EQUIPED, AND UP TO 130 KNOTS.

Do you know what that means?

Your canopy was tested at 198 LBS and has a Max. Suspended Wt. of 160.

You are overloading the Max. suspended weight by 40 LBS and you are 1 LBS over the tested max weight.

Good luck deploying that thing at terminal.

Memento Audere Semper

903

[mjosparky 4]

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The likelihood that you will have another reserve ride?

Interesting question.

Taking the ParaGear number of 1 in 300 jumps leading to a reserve ride, and figuring that reserve rides distribute according to a Poisson distribution (appropriate for this kind of event), in 200 jumps like you have made, we would expect out of a random selection of 100 skydivers:

51 to have had no reserve ride
34 to have had 1 reserve ride
11 to have had 2 reserve rides
3 to have had 3 reserve rides
1 to have had more than 3 reserve rides.


By the time you get to 1,000 jumps we would expect, out of 100 randomly selected skydivers:

4 to have had no reserve ride
12 to have had 1 reserve ride
20 to have had 2 reserve rides
22 to have had 3 reserve rides
18 to have had 4 reserve rides
12 to have had 5 reserve rides
12 to have had more than 5 reserve rides

And his reserve is still overloaded.

My head hurts, I am going to lay down.

Sparky

My idea of a fair fight is clubbing baby seals

[jlmiracle 7]

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MRMSW is 176 pounds. 194 is a bit more.

Manufacturer’s Recommended Maximum Suspended Weight
(defined as: Jumper + Clothing + Equipment) jumping in near perfect
conditions.

From the Warning label:
APPROVED UNDER TSO C23c FOR CATEGORY “A”
THIS PARACHUTE IS LIMITED TO PERSONS UP TO 90KG
(198 LBS) FULLY EQUIPED, AND UP TO 130 KNOTS.

Can you afford to jump this reserve? By that I mean, do you have health insurance? Can you afford a $250,000+ hospital bill? Can you afford to be out of work for weeks maybe months healing?

Just a few more things to think of when downsizing and/or jumping out of the manufacturers recommendations.

Judy

Be kinder than necessary because everyone you meet is fighting some kind of battle.

[bmcd308 0]

>> Poisson distribution <<

Something seems fishy here.

----------------------------------
www.jumpelvis.com

[mnealtx 0]

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>> Poisson distribution <<

Something seems fishy here.

*groan*

Mike
I love you, Shannon and Jim.
POPS 9708 , SCR 14706

[tso-d_chris 0]

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I think you might know that state of mind when you do practice EP 3+ times before jump out in every jump. When you still have the bad feeling every time that situation is to perfect to be true and staying on the edge until you get the packing area.....

Practicing your reserve procedures three times prior to every jump is a very good habit to get into. It helps with muscle memory, and keeps you in practice.

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I have started jumping with my own gear at the WL that is not so highly recommended here.

I had 9 jumps with it and 8 of them was a perfect, soft and stand-up landing. 2nd was a sidewind with sliding on grass and having a grass stain. This was in the end of September.

This is about 1%-2% of the jumps on this canopy as you need to REALLY get a feel for how a specific canopy flies in any condition. (I know, I'm expecting the flames)

In my opinion, there are four things about a jumper that give me important information:

Number of Jumps: There is nothing like skydiving to help us learn to skydive better.

Time in Sport: How long a jumper has been in the sport helps give me an idea of the things (s)he's seen. Wisdom comes only when we've had sufficient time to maximize what we can learn from our own, and others', experience.

Currency How often a jumper jumps is a major concern when it comes to choosing proper gear. 1000 jumps isn't so many if it took twenty years to make them.

Theory: I believe jumpers are safer, the more they know about their equipment and how it works. Familiarizing ourselves with with our equipment and different flying techniques on the ground can be far more productive than trying to learn everything in the air.


As far as instructors go, they new skydivers' best source of information. If what they tell you is SIGNIFICANTLY different from what LOTS of people say in this forum, though, seek a second opinion from a different qualified instructor.
The vast majority of the contributors in this forum have the very best intentions. Sometimes some incorrect information does come up, but it is usually quickly corrected.

For Great Deals on Gear

[davehartley 0]

Is this guy for real or is he just winding everyone up. Is the state of skydiving in Finland such that he can get in the plane with an overloaded reserve canopy on an ongoing basis. If he has been able to fool his drop zone until now, lets hope lets hope his chief instructor reads these threads. If this guy is for real, his thread will prove very valuable. When the inevitable happens he will be held up as the perfect example of what happens to the know it alls in this sport. I've got around 550 jumps now, and the one thing I know for sure is that I know very little. When I read advice on here I discuss it with the instructors at my dz, before I act on it. Simple, thats what every sensible instructor rated poster tells you to do. Seriously, if this guy is for real I hope someone can stop him, but I doubt it.

Better drowned than duffers. If not duffers, won't drown.

[billvon 2,991]

> Is the state of skydiving in Finland such that he can get in the plane
>with an overloaded reserve canopy on an ongoing basis.

I don't know about Finland but it is certainly true here.