Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One's Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments

[tcnelson 1]

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statistics itself is just data, and it's their problem that they can't read it.

yeah, it's their problem that they don't understand statistics, like sample size and the gaussian distribution...shame on them...of course, that's what statisticians have counted on for many a year now.

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I love it when people assume that someone who wrote a paper does not understand elementary statistics, especially in psychology/medicine.

i love it when statisticians are not scientists and they assume that people like me won't call them out on their bs findings. stats are supposed to be a tool, not an end. too many statisticians are employed as mathematicians instead of palm readers.

"Don't talk to me like that assface...I don't work for you yet." - Fletch
NBFT, Deseoso Rodriguez RB#1329

[tcnelson 1]

i land, therefore i am what a lousy place for a wall!

"Don't talk to me like that assface...I don't work for you yet." - Fletch
NBFT, Deseoso Rodriguez RB#1329

[kallend 2,026]

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statistics itself is just data, and it's their problem that they can't read it.

yeah, it's their problem that they don't understand statistics, like sample size and the gaussian distribution...shame on them...of course, that's what statisticians have counted on for many a year now.

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I love it when people assume that someone who wrote a paper does not understand elementary statistics, especially in psychology/medicine.

i love it when statisticians are not scientists and they assume that people like me won't call them out on their bs findings. stats are supposed to be a tool, not an end. too many statisticians are employed as mathematicians instead of palm readers.

Perhaps you'll be kind enough to point out the errors in methodology employed.

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The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[Push 0]

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too many statisticians are employed as mathematicians instead of palm readers

I take it you're not very big on statistical mechanics then eh, chemist?

-- Toggle Whippin' Yahoo
Skydiving is easy. All you have to do is relax while plummetting at 120 mph from 10,000' with nothing but some nylon and webbing to save you.

[masher 1]

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too many statisticians are employed as mathematicians instead of palm readers

I take it you're not very big on statistical mechanics then eh, chemist?

Don't you know that chemists only take three data points? That way you can always find some graph paper that will let you put a straight line through them :)

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That's a joke peoples......

--
Arching is overrated - Marlies

[Push 0]

I heard that one about physicists originally

-- Toggle Whippin' Yahoo
Skydiving is easy. All you have to do is relax while plummetting at 120 mph from 10,000' with nothing but some nylon and webbing to save you.

[kallend 2,026]

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I heard that one about physicists originally

Maybe you'll take the time (like I did) to read "Principia" by Isaac Newton.

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The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one.

[tcnelson 1]

yeah, you mean sadistical mechanics! i just finished that course recently and although it was interesting, i'd rather not do it again.

"Don't talk to me like that assface...I don't work for you yet." - Fletch
NBFT, Deseoso Rodriguez RB#1329

[tcnelson 1]

we use two for graphs; we only do three if we need better error measurements.

"Don't talk to me like that assface...I don't work for you yet." - Fletch
NBFT, Deseoso Rodriguez RB#1329

[flyinchicken 0]

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You are the poster child for a guy that thinks he is more skilled than he is.

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so you say...and you're the poster child for the skydiver whose skill has given him a BIG FUCKIN' head. come meet me; skydive with me; drink with me; enjoy life with me; and then tell me that i'm dangerous.

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My big head or not, many people have said you are dangerous...You fit the profile perfectly. A young skydiver with a few hundred jumps and a fast canopy that has been warned he is in danger and refuses to listen to advice from people with MUCH more experience. And you just seem to big headed to notice, your inflated EGO will not let you listen.

I have helped scrape up many jumpers who were just like you. I have burried a few that were not lucky enough to survive their egos.

As for drinking beer with you, jumping with you, and enjoying life with you......

I don't drink, but thanks the same...I'll have a coke.

I'll jump with you, but I'm gonna watch you like a hawk under canopy...I have been told you have cut people off, and swooped WAY to close to other people.

Enjoy life....Well I will. I am TRYING to get you to see that while the course you are on may SEEM fun....But one small accident and you are broken. Being broken sucks. No jumping, high medical bills...Hell I have friends that can barely walk after a skydiving accident. I have seen guys just like you that had promise of being the next hot thing in this sport, the future leaders, let their ego select the canopy they jump. One small mistake later and they are broken, washed up, or dead....Its hard to be the next hot thing when you are broken and your medical bills make it so you can't afford to jump. If you do break yourself and have to sit out for a year or better, its hard to get that edge back...And well a dead guy has never won the Nationals.

One of my best friends is dead...His ego and his high level of skill failed him when he needed them...I jumped his main and reservre at the Nationals in 2002...I could not jump his rig since we could not get the blood stains out of it.

You think I have a big head? Look in a mirror....I STILL listen to advice...You don't. I have 16 times the jumps you do. Thats for every jump you have ever done, I have done 16. And I STILL get advice. I have test jumped for two different canopy manufactorers, and I STILL listen to advice. In 97 I was jumping a cross braced 88...And had put several jumps on the 69...Back when there were maybe THREE in the US..And I STILL listen to advice.

I did 46 jumps LAST WEEK (which is 1/4 of your TOTAL jumps)...And I STILL listen to advice.

Now, who has the big head? The guy that has 3300 jumps that still listens to advice when given to him. And he tries like hell to wake up the newer jumpers that are going down a dangerous path. Or the guy with 200 jumps and already acts like he knows it all, and when given advice blows it off and claims the people giving it have big heads?

I do a lot of lurking here. Don't have a lot of jumps and have fucked up a few times due to overconfidence, just lucky it hasn't hurt me or someone else. Presently, I am afraid to get in the air because I know my real life has stressed me to the point that I cannot make wise choices and descisions in the air. Just so you know Ron, I pay a lot of attention to the things you say. This is a prime example of the mentallity I want to keep intact within myself when I hit that 1000, 2000, 3000 jump mark. Just wanted you to know I think ur pretty cool, and if you decide to cut up anything I post concerning my jumping it will be welcomed and I will still think you're cool!

"Diligent observation leads to pure abstraction". Lari Pittman

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[tattoojeff 0]

i agree this guy is a 1 footer ( as in one foot in the grave). i also dont care that much if his arrogance kills him, but sometimes they take freinds of mine and yours with them. this pisses me off!!!! i resent every damn one of these dgit. the fact that under canopy i am like a hawk constantly swiveling my head around spotting the scary people and scanning, only to be taken out anyway by some guy like this!!!
well fuck that!!!

[WrongWay 0]

Where do you have room to talk about statistics when you are so far along the road to becoming one?

By the way, nice right hand hook turn into a left hand pattern in the middle of traffic this weekend. I hear now there's only one person who's against grounding you. Good job. (Many eyes are on you....in case you haven't noticed.)

Wrong Way
D #27371 Mal Manera Rodriguez Cajun Chicken Ø Hellfish #451
The wiser wolf prevails.

[Vimes 0]

Well this sounds like exactly what I did yesterday

A little to no wind day and im on a spectre 170 WL 1.1-1.15 (depening on how much ive eaten-seriously my weight can change that much in a day)

OK so no wind expecting a nice fast ground surfy type landing, to me anyways (straight in approach obviously in case your wondering) I have landed in no wind days before so knew what to expect in relation to the speed I travel under my canopy. Thinking I had it nailed because I have done them a few times (but knowing really that I hadn’t, which is probably what stopped me from doing something silly) (see the judging ones ability thing
Only did three jumps that day and managed to properly stick one out of the three landing, they were all still stand up landings but only one was what you would call good. The others involved a flaring a little to high (stock mistake of inexperienced pilot on fast landing days I hear you say) so the surf (to me anyways) was a bit to high meaning a little drop and run

Basically what im saying is I think its human nature to judge ourselves as better than we are but we must also be aware that we do so we don’t put ourselves in too much danger, downsizing too early etc comes to mind. I had no intention on downsizing yet but just for the record if I had yesterday would have made me think again!

Laters

[WrongWay 0]

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Basically what im saying is I think its human nature to judge ourselves as better than we are but we must also be aware that we do so we don’t put ourselves in too much danger

There's the problem. Idiots can be idiots without knowing they're idiots. If they knew, maybe they'd look out for themselves a bit better.

Some jumpers are smart and recognize the fact that they don't know everything, and they are honest with themselves and others about their skill level. They listen to those with higher jump numbers or more years in the sport because they realize that there are people that are better than them. These are the guys who will grow old and make thousands upon thousands of skydives.

Other jumpers aren't necessarily "stupid" people, but they're very cocky, arrogant, and think they know it all. They feel that they are above everyone else for a few reasons. First, they seek praise. They will find one person who supports them in making stupid decisions (whether that person knows about what's going on or not) and focuses on them for positive feedback, no matter what they do. By doing this, they blur out everyone else who gives criticism, and don't take anything anyone else says seriously (as in negative feedback). They feel they are above "help" or "coaching" because another newbie or an old time jumper with no knowledge of the specific discipline at hand tells them they're doing great.

We had a jumper like this out a the dz just this weekend. He was attending a course that we were all in. He was seeking/expecting praise instead of coaching/criticism, and so he quit. Perfect example.

Wrong Way
D #27371 Mal Manera Rodriguez Cajun Chicken Ø Hellfish #451
The wiser wolf prevails.

[teason 0]

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they don't understand statistics, like sample size and the gaussian distribution

hmm...sample size eh?
hmm..
lets see.... been to dozens of DZs .... seen tens of thousands of skydives ..... everyone in that situation has drawn the same conclusion.

let's see ... limited DZ exposer .... seen hundreds of skydives ... drawing different conclusions.

The latter seems a poor sample size by comparison.

If those in the latter group also disregard the observations of those in the former group, then they are in effect disregarding hundreds of thousands and even millions of bits of data.

The only reason for doing it seems to be that it conflicts with the conclusions they have drawn based on thier own poor sample size.

I think that is a good example of ignorance. It's one thing to not know, its another thing to not WANT to know.

The problem here is self awareness. Some have it, some do not.
And some are so insecure they can't see from any other perspective but thier own!

Broaden your horizons gawdammit. Most of us have already seen your eyes and have the scars to prove it. Try to see through ours. The life you save just may be your own!

I would rather be a superb meteor, every atom of me in magnificent glow, than a sleepy and permanent planet.

[milutim 0]

Bertrand Russell: "The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt."

[Ruffles 0]

Throw in some low-timer two cents for the high timers out there I see fighting so hard to make things right. I and many others like me hear you loud and clear. However, the thing that is making all of you blood pressures sky rocket is that you cannot accept the lead a horse to water concept. The personality types that are attracted to this sport are inherently arrogant and independant (like myself). SOMETIMES this personality demographic leads to deafness. You can put the info out there, but like the thread's basis, the morons will not hear. You can scream, preach, rant, TYPE IN BOLD, write great books and show videos, but they will never get it. Case in point: a guy that I did AFF about the same time with is now jumping a stilleto at 1.45 and swooping like a skygod. People talked to him, counseled him, he ate shit once that I have seen, and he's still thinking about downsizing. There is no point, it is hopeless. You guys do the best you can, I and many others appreciate it and we're proabably still breathing because of it, but this pointless cyclical agruing that goes on sometimes in these forums is just increasing your risk of heart disease. Its terrible to watch, but evolution will inevitably have its way. Its not your fault, you did all you could. This goes with the sport, unless you want the FAA to regulate it and give psychological profile tests as a rating requirement.