RISK FACTOR FORMULA???

[kschilk 0]

We've got a standard formula or rating system for just about everything else, why not one to determine a "risk factor"? Just for S&Gs, I'm gonna' propose the following formula:

1) Since we need a base line, we could start with the number of people on the load, all aboard included.
2) Then, we add a "wind factor" number.... 1 for each 1 mph of wind speed. If the wind is variable, in direction or speed...multiply the wind factor, by itself. If both, double it again. (pay attention, now)
3) If you do a formation....add 1 for each member, just for the exit.
4) Multiply the number of formation members, by itself...and again, by the number of points turned (intended/planned) to allow for a "collision factor".(If not regularly jumping with any number of the formation members, add 10 for each.)
5) Again....multiply the number of formation members, by itself and again by 3....to allow for break-off, track and opening.(still with me?)
6) Add the number of people on the load, multiplied by the wind factor....for approach and landing. (If landing within 500 meters of an active runway....add another 10.)
7) to ?)....add 10 each, for any additional unfamiliarities, irregularities or changes in routine, equipment, location, aircraft, etc.. (almost there!)
FINALLY.....add up the sum of these numbers. That would be our "sub total".
Now, take the number of jumps you have completed and place a decimal point, in front of that number. Keep that number, we'll get back to that one.We'll just call that the "x (perience)-factor".

***Use the following to determine a "skill level factor"...A=1, B=2, C=3, D=4,Pro/Instructor Rating=5

--- Multiply your skill level factor by 100 and again, by your current x-factor.
---FINALLY....subtract this number, from the previous sub total....that's the Risk Factor of the jump.

Well, whuddya' think?
I know it sounds involved but it would help illustrate the forming of the "chain"....might be useful.

"T'was ever thus."

[MrBrant 0]

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Well, whuddya' think?

Shut-up and jump!

[kschilk 0]

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Well, whuddya' think?

Shut-up and jump!

Can't! Tried it & ended UTMA in snow. Got nuthin' else to do...'till it melts, in like....May.

"T'was ever thus."

[jas8472 0]

You forgot about currency.

Also what would the final number actually mean?

Edited to add: You could compare one sykdive to another with system (maybe) but how would it compare to drive to the DZ or crossing the street, wouldn't that be the goal in any risk assessment to compare skydiving to every day life.

[Eule 0]

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We've got a standard formula or rating system for just about everything else, why not one to
determine a "risk factor"?

Caution: low jump number here.

It's an interesting idea, but I think reducing it to a single number has problems. If some jump is rated,
say, "1000" according to your formula, and somebody jumps it and it goes well, they may tend to think
that they can do all "1000" rated jumps. If the "1000" rating was a simple solo jump with a bit of wind,
that's still a different jump than a "1000" rated jump that involves a four-way team turning a couple
of points.

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Just for S&Gs, I'm gonna' propose the following formula:

Similarly, I am going to attempt to work out the "risk factor" according to your formula for two
different jumps. One is an instructor with 1000 jumps jumping his own rig out of a 182 over a
dropzone he's jumped over many times before. It's just him and the pilot on the load and it's dead
calm. The other is the same guy, jumping in 400-way they're working on in Thailand, assuming it's
a steady 10 mph, there are 40 jumpers and 2 crew per aircraft, and each person only jumps
regularly with 14 other people on the attempt.

First jump (solo, 182):
1) 2
2) 0
3) 0
4) 0
5) 0
6) 10 (the DZ isn't that big)
subtotal 12
xperience-factor 0.1
skill-level factor 5
5 * 100 * 0.1 = 50
12 - 50 = risk factor -38

Second jump (World Team):
1) 42
2) 10
3) 40
4) 400 * 400 = 160000 * 1 point = 160000
385 unknown jumpers * 10 = 3850
total 160000+3850 = 163850
5) 400 * 400 * 3 = 480000
6) 400 * 10 = 4000
4000 + 10 (some have to be landing near an active) = 4010
7) 10 for different exit +
10 for different pilots +
10 for different country = 30
subtotal 651982
xperience-factor 0.1
skill-level factor 5
5 * 100 * 0.1 = 50
651982 - 50 = risk factor 651932

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Now, take the number of jumps you have completed and place a decimal point, in front of that
number. Keep that number, we'll get back to that one.We'll just call that the "x (perience)-factor".

I don't think this does exactly what you think it does. According to this, people with 1, 10, 100, and
1000 jumps have the same experience factor. I think what you want to do is left pad your jump number
with zeros before doing this. Another way to say the same thing is to divide your jump number by
1000 or 10000 or whatever to get the x-factor.

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Well, whuddya' think?

N zngurzngvpvna anzrq Unyy
Unf n urknurqebavpny onyy,
Naq gur phor bs vgf jrvtug
Gvzrf uvf crpxre'f, cyhf rvtug
Vf uvf cubar ahzore -- tvir uvz n pnyy...

Eule

PLF does not stand for Please Land on Face.

[piisfish 140]

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The other is the same guy, jumping in 400-way they're working on in Thailand, ..., there are 40 jumpers and 2 crew per aircraft, and each person only jumps
regularly with 14 other people on the attempt.

400way, 5 planes.. that's more than 40 per plane.. plus videopeople and crew certainly more than 2... this will definitely increase your risk factor thing...

scissors beat paper, paper beat rock, rock beat wingsuit - KarlM

[pilotdave 0]

Ya know for the last year or so I've had sitting on my desk the US Army's formula for calculating the risk of a helicopter or fixed wing mission. I wanted to adapt something similar to general aviation and skydiving. Army pilots actually go through the excersize of calculating that risk factor before every flight. Various levels of permission are required for the flight based on the result. Seems like it could be a good idea for us to do the same sort of thing. I think we intuitively know how much risk we're taking, but then again we see people taking risks they don't seem to understand all the time. Could be a litte wake up call, not that anybody taking high risks would care...

Dave

[kschilk 0]

Quote

Quote

We've got a standard formula or rating system for just about everything else, why not one to
determine a "risk factor"?

Caution: low jump number here.

It's an interesting idea, but I think reducing it to a single number has problems. If some jump is rated,
say, "1000" according to your formula, and somebody jumps it and it goes well, they may tend to think
that they can do all "1000" rated jumps. If the "1000" rating was a simple solo jump with a bit of wind,
that's still a different jump than a "1000" rated jump that involves a four-way team turning a couple
of points.

Quote

Just for S&Gs, I'm gonna' propose the following formula:

Similarly, I am going to attempt to work out the "risk factor" according to your formula for two
different jumps. One is an instructor with 1000 jumps jumping his own rig out of a 182 over a
dropzone he's jumped over many times before. It's just him and the pilot on the load and it's dead
calm. The other is the same guy, jumping in 400-way they're working on in Thailand, assuming it's
a steady 10 mph, there are 40 jumpers and 2 crew per aircraft, and each person only jumps
regularly with 14 other people on the attempt.

First jump (solo, 182):
1) 2
2) 0
3) 0
4) 0
5) 0
6) 10 (the DZ isn't that big)
subtotal 12
xperience-factor 0.1
skill-level factor 5
5 * 100 * 0.1 = 50
12 - 50 = risk factor -38

Second jump (World Team):
1) 42
2) 10
3) 40
4) 400 * 400 = 160000 * 1 point = 160000
385 unknown jumpers * 10 = 3850
total 160000+3850 = 163850
5) 400 * 400 * 3 = 480000
6) 400 * 10 = 4000
4000 + 10 (some have to be landing near an active) = 4010
7) 10 for different exit +
10 for different pilots +
10 for different country = 30
subtotal 651982
xperience-factor 0.1
skill-level factor 5
5 * 100 * 0.1 = 50
651982 - 50 = risk factor 651932

Quote

Now, take the number of jumps you have completed and place a decimal point, in front of that
number. Keep that number, we'll get back to that one.We'll just call that the "x (perience)-factor".

I don't think this does exactly what you think it does. According to this, people with 1, 10, 100, and
1000 jumps have the same experience factor. I think what you want to do is left pad your jump number
with zeros before doing this. Another way to say the same thing is to divide your jump number by
1000 or 10000 or whatever to get the x-factor.

Quote

Well, whuddya' think?

N zngurzngvpvna anzrq Unyy
Unf n urknurqebavpny onyy,
Naq gur phor bs vgf jrvtug
Gvzrf uvf crpxre'f, cyhf rvtug
Vf uvf cubar ahzore -- tvir uvz n pnyy...

Eule

OK, man...ya' busted me! You brought up some good points. I have to admit that I kinda' wrote all that, on the fly....I didn't actually work out all the math. However, you and the other replies help to illustrate my actual intended point.
The formula, the numbers....all need tweaked. There would probably not be any single way that will work for all disciplines,all people and all situations. There should NEVER be a negative risk factor, there's always some risk....even going solo. That's the purpose for a baseline.
For sake of simplicity, let's say your "normal" risk factor is 40. You get an offer to make a jump that, for one reason or another....rates at a 90. You look at the numbers and can immediately see the increase, it may cause you to re-think...maybe make some changes, to bring the number down.
The "x-factor" thing....it shouldn't vary much. If you look at the incident reports, it seems obvious that the license level and jumps completed are almost totally irrelevent. You don't see a lot of students doing tent stake impersonations. It's usually the "experienced" ones that get hurt or get others hurt. I don't think many start out cocky, it comes with time and "experience".
To rate experience is difficult. If you have 2 guys, both with 100 jumps. Jumper 1 has made all solos but 30 were HALOs (30,000+), 20 were BASE, 20 were wingsuit jumps and he has jumped from helos, balloons and 40 different types of aircraft. Jumper 2 has done 70 RW jumps of 8+ ways, from 10 separate types of aircraft and at 20 different dzs. Are they equal? It's tough!

"T'was ever thus."

[kschilk 0]

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You forgot about currency.

Also what would the final number actually mean?

Edited to add: You could compare one sykdive to another with system (maybe) but how would it compare to drive to the DZ or crossing the street, wouldn't that be the goal in any risk assessment to compare skydiving to every day life.

Currency is a serious factor, I totally BF'd on that one! I don't mean to compare skydiving, to everyday life risk....only jump to jump.

"T'was ever thus."

[kschilk 0]

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Ya know for the last year or so I've had sitting on my desk the US Army's formula for calculating the risk of a helicopter or fixed wing mission. I wanted to adapt something similar to general aviation and skydiving. Army pilots actually go through the excersize of calculating that risk factor before every flight. Various levels of permission are required for the flight based on the result. Seems like it could be a good idea for us to do the same sort of thing. I think we intuitively know how much risk we're taking, but then again we see people taking risks they don't seem to understand all the time. Could be a litte wake up call, not that anybody taking high risks would care...

Dave

The Army !?!? If it's not classified....I'd really like to get a look at that! I'd like to see how they figure it.

"T'was ever thus."

[LouDiamond 1]

The military has been conducting risk assesments for every type of training imaginable. In fact, you don't conduct any training with out having a risk assessment worksheet filled out. The closest thing you could model to skydiving would be a HALO risk assessment. It would cover a lot of common problems but it would be hard to make work since some of the control measure we take to mitigate risks cannot be enforced on a civillian dz. You could however as a DZ owner or an S&TA use the risk assessment work sheet and the associated matrix to make the DZ or any operation safer. If your interested in seeing how it's done with out having to do all that number crunching, Google "risk assessment worksheet" and " Risk assessment matrix". You need the matrix to fill in the worksheet and determine risk. The hardest part is determining all the potential hazards of your given training/event. Once you have those, you can easily determine the risk involved using the matrix and ultimately come up with an overall risk assesment that is fairly accurate for said event.

"It's just skydiving..additional drama is not required"
Some people dream about flying, I live my dream
SKYMONKEY PUBLISHING

[kschilk 0]

Thanks for the info! I'll definitely look that up!

"T'was ever thus."