skybytch 273
The111 1
In threads like this there's always people who say "you can do everything right and still die". I'm curious how many incidents each year were a case of that. Obviously it's very hard to say exactly what else a person could have done in certain situations, and the answer to this question would be arguable on some incidents. But as a rough estimate, I'd bet the proportion is very small. I've read through pages of incident reports and with each one, according to the investigator, there was at least one thing the jumper could have done to prevent his death. I actually don't think I could find one where there was no "user error" present (recent fatalities).
That said, maybe the argument should not be "safe of unsafe", but "how forgiving of error". Russian Roulette is not a valid comparison. There is no user input except spinning a wheel and pulling a trigger. 100% of Russian Roulette deaths are analagous to a "gear failure" in skydiving. Driving is a more valid comparison, as our risk relies heavily on our own choices and those of the other drivers on the road. But I'd wager to say a VERY small proportion (i.e. next to ZERO) of fatal traffic accidents are caused by a car failing to perform as instructed by the driver.
That said, maybe the argument should not be "safe of unsafe", but "how forgiving of error". Russian Roulette is not a valid comparison. There is no user input except spinning a wheel and pulling a trigger. 100% of Russian Roulette deaths are analagous to a "gear failure" in skydiving. Driving is a more valid comparison, as our risk relies heavily on our own choices and those of the other drivers on the road. But I'd wager to say a VERY small proportion (i.e. next to ZERO) of fatal traffic accidents are caused by a car failing to perform as instructed by the driver.
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skybytch 273
QuoteI've read through pages of incident reports and with each one, according to the investigator, there was at least one thing the jumper could have done to prevent his death. I actually don't think I could find one where there was no "user error" present (recent fatalities).
January 2000. Perris, CA. Very experienced (5000+ jumps), very current jumper. New gear, with Cypres. A line from the main caught on a grommet on one of the main flaps, creating a horseshoe. He tried to clear it, tried to chop it, nothing worked. Had no choice but to fire the reserve. It didn't clear the mess above him.
He did everything right. He died.
That's one example anyway; I know about it because I watched him exit the plane just ahead of our group on that skydive. There are others.
The111 1
I'd still bet occurences like those, today, happen less than those caused by user error, by a factor of at least 10.
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skybytch 273
QuoteI'd still bet occurences like those, today, happen less than those caused by user error
Absolutely. "Pilot error" is and always has been the leading cause of skydiving fatalities.
But the fact remains that incidents like the one I mentioned do happen - IIRC there was another one in Eloy within a month or so of the one I'm talking about.
No matter how perfect a skydiver I may be, no matter how many "safety devices" I have on my rig, I can still die jumping out of airplanes. To me that makes the sport far from "safe." "Safe enough" for me to participate in... but not "safe."
The111 1
I agree entirely Lisa.
The point I was trying to make is that when people compare stats they usually use the "full" stats (i.e. including pilot error). I'd be interested to see stats of skydivers who die while doing nothing wrong, versus auto drivers who die while doing nothing wrong, versus pedestrians who die while doing nothing wrong (didn't the pres. of a South FL canopy company die like this recently?). I think that using those statistics the sport might at least be a little closer to the all too common phrase newbies use - "it's as safe as driving and all those other things we do!" Notice I said a *little* closer.
The point I was trying to make is that when people compare stats they usually use the "full" stats (i.e. including pilot error). I'd be interested to see stats of skydivers who die while doing nothing wrong, versus auto drivers who die while doing nothing wrong, versus pedestrians who die while doing nothing wrong (didn't the pres. of a South FL canopy company die like this recently?). I think that using those statistics the sport might at least be a little closer to the all too common phrase newbies use - "it's as safe as driving and all those other things we do!" Notice I said a *little* closer.
www.WingsuitPhotos.com
QuoteI think that using those statistics the sport might at least be a little closer to the all too common phrase newbies use - "it's as safe as driving and all those other things we do!" Notice I said a *little* closer.
About 1 in 1000 skydivers die every year. If you skydive, your odds of dying while skydiving are MUCH higher than your odds of dying while driving.
Dave
The111 1
Re-read my post. The number of skydivers who die while doing nothing wrong, due 100% to gear failure, is much much smaller.
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ZoneRat 0
I kinda liked the russian r. analogy you almost made, Elphanie... except that the number of chambers increases and decreases with experience and situation.
Here's another analogy. Kids learning to drive.
Get 'em through those tricky adolescent years and they'll probably be ok.
I'm right in the middle of those adolescent jump numbers myself... Realizing that, I try to stay away from certain things... hook turns for example. 4-way or larger FF jumps (I'm a rw guy at present). Larger tracking dives. I would wear a camera now, but I wouldn't for several hundred jumps even when I wanted to and had one. Wing suits, I'd like to try that but am sorta waiting. I stayed with a medium performance canopy. That was a good call. I have no business trying Base just yet.
I dunno. It's not hard to skydive safely. All you have to do is choose to be safe. Exercise a little self discipline. Stack the deck in your favor as they say.
Even still, you can do everything right, and still get bit.
So it goes.
Here's another analogy. Kids learning to drive.
Get 'em through those tricky adolescent years and they'll probably be ok.
I'm right in the middle of those adolescent jump numbers myself... Realizing that, I try to stay away from certain things... hook turns for example. 4-way or larger FF jumps (I'm a rw guy at present). Larger tracking dives. I would wear a camera now, but I wouldn't for several hundred jumps even when I wanted to and had one. Wing suits, I'd like to try that but am sorta waiting. I stayed with a medium performance canopy. That was a good call. I have no business trying Base just yet.
I dunno. It's not hard to skydive safely. All you have to do is choose to be safe. Exercise a little self discipline. Stack the deck in your favor as they say.
Even still, you can do everything right, and still get bit.
So it goes.
“There are more things in Heaven and Earth, Horatio, than are dreamt of in your philosophies.”
I still don't see it. You are saying that I, mr. average skydiver, am more likely to die due to a mechanical failure of my car than due to a mechanical failure of my rig? I don't agree. Car's don't just suddenly explode for no reason. Now if you include me driving along and getting hit by some drunk driver or something, then you have to include canopy collisions and freefall collisions in your analogy.
Gear falures don't happen for no reason. There's always SOMETHING that could have been done differently. But failures do happen unexpectedly.
I know the stats aren't available, but just look at how many skydivers are killed by malfunctioning cars vs malfunctioning rigs.
I don't believe anyone will find a VALID argument that skydiving is anywhere near as safe as driving.
Dave
Gear falures don't happen for no reason. There's always SOMETHING that could have been done differently. But failures do happen unexpectedly.
I know the stats aren't available, but just look at how many skydivers are killed by malfunctioning cars vs malfunctioning rigs.
I don't believe anyone will find a VALID argument that skydiving is anywhere near as safe as driving.
Dave
billvon 3,006
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>Gear falures don't happen for no reason. There's always SOMETHING
> that could have been done differently.
Not really. Sometimes parachutes just malfunction, even when properly assembled, maintained and packed. It's very rare but it happens; double mals occur on a sporadic (but rare) basis.
> that could have been done differently.
Not really. Sometimes parachutes just malfunction, even when properly assembled, maintained and packed. It's very rare but it happens; double mals occur on a sporadic (but rare) basis.
Ron 10
QuoteRon had insinuated that I'd only be able to say that something was safe or unsafe if I was only an active participant
No, my point is you don't know enough about those aspects of the sport to say what is, and what is not dangerous. You don't have to do it, but you have to have some idea of that aspect of the sport.
I only know of ONE death from CReW that was broken off before 2 grand...And it was an exit issue at a competition.
So for you to say CReW, Wingsuits, BASE are dangerous, but Skydiving is "safe" is wrong.
"No free man shall ever be debarred the use of arms." -- Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Jefferson Papers, 334
Ron 10
QuoteI'd be interested to see stats of skydivers who die while doing nothing wrong, versus auto drivers who die while doing nothing wrong, versus pedestrians who die while doing nothing wrong
The problem is that there is no such thing as an accident. There are only errors in judgment.
I was in a risk assesment class. The instructor told us that there was no such thing as an accident. We tried to argue with him...but every incident we brought up, he slammed us back down.
Using Lisa's example....The manufactorer of the rig screwed up and thought that the groment would be fine.
People don't mantain their rigs.
People turn into the ground.
Pedestrians who get hit crossing a street didn't cross at the right place, did't look well enough, or misjudged the crossing....Or maybe the driver was not looking for a guy to cross the street...Either way...An error in judgment, not an accident.
But the simple fact is that Skydiving is not a Safe sport. I like what Winsor said about it basicly being commiting suicide. You throw yourself out of a plane....If you do nothing you will die, if something goes wrong you could die.
That does not sound like a safe sport to me.
"No free man shall ever be debarred the use of arms." -- Thomas Jefferson, Thomas Jefferson Papers, 334
Well, I disagree. Malfunctions do occur unexpectedly, but not for no reason. The user may not be able to prevent every malfunction, but someone, somewhere along the line could. Every malfunction has a cause. I'm not saying that every malfunction could be realistically avoided. In fact I don't even remember what the hell my point was. 
Dave
Dave
mr2mk1g 10
You're right of course, virtually everything can be put down to a mistake by someone somewhere.
But put in chaos theory though and you might come up against situations where shit just happens. Imagine a tension knot on a large canopy... not caused by anything much other than the lines moving against each other on deployment. No ones fault, not really something that can be avoided, just happens.
All that messed up burble air makes for a large chaos theory factor.
But put in chaos theory though and you might come up against situations where shit just happens. Imagine a tension knot on a large canopy... not caused by anything much other than the lines moving against each other on deployment. No ones fault, not really something that can be avoided, just happens.
All that messed up burble air makes for a large chaos theory factor.
billvon 3,006
>Malfunctions do occur unexpectedly, but not for no reason.
Sometimes even a perfectly packed parachute does not open correctly. It can get a lineover, or it can open hard enough to break lines, or it can open in unrecoverable line twists etc. A parachute deployment is an essentially chaotic event; there's no way to "force" a flexible assembly of lines and fabric in a 120mph airstream to do exactly what you want it to do. A well designed parachute will do the right thing 99.95% of the time, but that other .05% - you'll have problems, even if you do everything else right.
Sometimes even a perfectly packed parachute does not open correctly. It can get a lineover, or it can open hard enough to break lines, or it can open in unrecoverable line twists etc. A parachute deployment is an essentially chaotic event; there's no way to "force" a flexible assembly of lines and fabric in a 120mph airstream to do exactly what you want it to do. A well designed parachute will do the right thing 99.95% of the time, but that other .05% - you'll have problems, even if you do everything else right.
Jimbo 0
Quotethere's no way to "force" a flexible assembly of lines and fabric in a 120mph airstream to do exactly what you want it to do. A well designed parachute will do the right thing 99.95% of the time,
Off topic, I know, but when you think about that, it's just amazing. Absolutely amazing.
-
Jim
"Like" - The modern day comma
Good bye, my friends. You are missed.
Good bye, my friends. You are missed.
Right. Which is a good thing to be careful about when posting on the internet - since words are all we have to go by and words are interpreted by different people in different ways.
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