annna 0 #1 October 9, 2003 Regarding the quoted paragraph below (from some groovy article online) - does anyone have any other kinda stats on the question we're always getting asked by friends, family, work colleagues - 'isn't it really dangerous ?!'. I usually mix up my reply to avoid the terminal boredom associated with answering the same question over and over - sometimes i'll say Yup, could die tomorrow its the most dangerous sport EVER and sometimes i'll tell people i'm more likely to die getting ravaged by a badger BUT the stats down there about if you jump 17 times in a year you're statistically at the same risk of dying jumping as dying in a car crash kinda surprised me ! regards, Anna x ***************************************** "The big question is always, "How dangerous is skydiving?" Each year, about 30 people die in parachuting accidents in the United States, or roughly one person per 100,000 jumps. Look at the US Skydiving Incident Reports to get an idea of the types of problems that lead to fatalities. If you make one jump in a year, your chance of dying is 1 in 100,000. How does the fatality rate in skydiving compare to other common activities? Since most adults in America drive cars, let's compare skydiving to driving. Roughly 40,000 people die each year in traffic accidents in the United States [ref]. That's 1.7 deaths per 100 million vehicle miles. Therefore, if you drive 10,000 miles per year, your chance of dying in a car wreck in any given year is something like 1 in 6,000. In other words, we accept a higher level of risk by getting into our cars every day than people do by occaisionally skydiving. You would have to jump 17 times per year for your risk of dying in a skydiving accident to equal your risk of dying in a car accident if you drive 10,000 miles per year. " ****************************************** Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
iam 0 #2 October 9, 2003 Thats decided it for me.....i'm definately selling my car."Don't ever knock on deaths door, just ring the bell and run away - it really pisses him off" Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
michaelflying 0 #3 October 9, 2003 so therefore it is more dangerous driving to the DZ than jumping at the DZ.www.skydivekzn.co.za Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
sducoach 0 #4 October 9, 2003 I would like to know where you found that quote. It is incorrect as I'm sure you know. If Tom B. does not post a follow up I'll be surprised. Blues, J.E.James 4:8 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
testpilot 0 #5 October 9, 2003 You have less chance of dying if you jump 170 times a year than if you jump 17 times a year. Dave D830 http://www.skydiving.co.za Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RippedCord 0 #6 October 9, 2003 QuoteYou have less chance of dying if you jump 170 times a year than if you jump 17 times a year. Correct! but only if you first you make an implicit assumption For bonus points and a chance to win the special 14 year-old prize that Skymama is giving away, what is the implicit assumption underlying that statement? Based on input from Remster this was edited to qualify the "Correct!" interjection. AMDG Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
annna 0 #7 October 9, 2003 http://entertainment.howstuffworks.com/skydiving8.htm Here's the link to the quote. I didn't think it sounded too correct, but then - that was based on pure gut feeling ! I guess there must be threads in the past with some more reliable stats - i'd be interested to a link to them if anyone knows. On the other hand - i hate stats !!! What am i talking about !! Its very sunny - think i need to skive off and go jumping ;-) anna Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Remster 30 #8 October 9, 2003 QuoteQuoteYou have less chance of dying if you jump 170 times a year than if you jump 17 times a year. Correct! Quote And you base this on what exactly? If you state Correct then you must base that on data somewhere. Can you please provide it? Carefull when making statements like that if you dont ACTUALLY have the information.Remster Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites RippedCord 0 #9 October 9, 2003 Actually, the quote is pretty spot-on. Using 2000 USPA data of 32 fatalities and an estimated 2,244,165 jumps Tom B, in Jump! Skydiving Made Fun & Easy, presents a fatality rate of one death for each 70,130 skydives. (Of course he doesn't go on to display a stunning lack of statistical comprehension, as the aforementioned site does, by qualifying it with If you make one jump in a year...) AMDG Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites Remster 30 #10 October 9, 2003 QuoteCorrect! but only if you first you make an implicit assumption Then its not correct! Its an assumption based on another assumption. To me, that's pure speculation. Remster Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites nightjumps 1 #11 October 9, 2003 Quote...what is the implicit assumption underlying that statement? There are procedures, based on r, for making inferences about the population correlation coefficient. However, these make the implicit assumption that the two variables are jointly normally distributed. When this assumption is not justified, it's better to use the non-parametric measure of the Spearman Rank Correlation Coefficient. Bottom line: Give actual values to variables. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites kallend 2,105 #12 October 9, 2003 Quote Regarding the quoted paragraph below (from some groovy article online) - does anyone have any other kinda stats on the question we're always getting asked by friends, family, work colleagues - 'isn't it really dangerous ?!'. I usually mix up my reply to avoid the terminal boredom associated with answering the same question over and over - sometimes i'll say Yup, could die tomorrow its the most dangerous sport EVER and sometimes i'll tell people i'm more likely to die getting ravaged by a badger BUT the stats down there about if you jump 17 times in a year you're statistically at the same risk of dying jumping as dying in a car crash kinda surprised me ! regards, Anna x ***************************************** "The big question is always, "How dangerous is skydiving?" Each year, about 30 people die in parachuting accidents in the United States, or roughly one person per 100,000 jumps. Look at the US Skydiving Incident Reports to get an idea of the types of problems that lead to fatalities. If you make one jump in a year, your chance of dying is 1 in 100,000. How does the fatality rate in skydiving compare to other common activities? Since most adults in America drive cars, let's compare skydiving to driving. Roughly 40,000 people die each year in traffic accidents in the United States [ref]. That's 1.7 deaths per 100 million vehicle miles. Therefore, if you drive 10,000 miles per year, your chance of dying in a car wreck in any given year is something like 1 in 6,000. In other words, we accept a higher level of risk by getting into our cars every day than people do by occaisionally skydiving. You would have to jump 17 times per year for your risk of dying in a skydiving accident to equal your risk of dying in a car accident if you drive 10,000 miles per year. " ****************************************** 1. Most skydivers jump more than 17 times a year. 2. Assume for argument's sake that the data are accurate. The 17 jumps correspond to something in the vicinity of an hour of "at risk" time. Driving 10,000 miles corresponds to something like 200 hours of "at risk" time.... The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites Aviatrr 0 #13 October 9, 2003 Quoteso therefore it is more dangerous driving to the DZ than jumping at the DZ. I'm sure you're joking here....but I hear too many people say that and they actually believe it. If anybody believes that driving to the DZ is more dangerous than jumping out of an airplane, they're incredibly stupid. When you step out of an airplane, YOU ARE DEAD UNTIL YOU DO SOMETHING TO PREVENT YOUR DEATH! I joke with my friends and tell them I'm a "dead man flying", but it's essentially the truth. Of course, with AAD's, people can argue that you have a 99.9% chance of surviving if you do nothing other than turn on your AAD before the jump...well, they'd probably be right...but that's another issue. We can't just say that skydivers are subject to X amount of risk by jumping Y times per year. It varies person to person. Who's more likely to get killed in the sport - a jumper that does 200 jumps a year, flies a large canopy at under 1:1 wing loading(and a reserve the same size), and has an AAD - or the guy that does 1000 jumps a year, flies a cross braced canopy loaded at 2.5:1(and a reserve at 2:1), competes in pond swooping, and does not use an AAD in their swoop rig? Of course, many people would say the second jumper stands a higher chance of getting killed in this sport, but again....it depends on the people. I, personally, would think the first jumper is more likely to be killed. The second knows their canopy intimately...and, let's face it, more people die under a perfectly good canopy than in any other situation. Mike Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites AndyMan 7 #14 October 9, 2003 It's an absurd comparison. The only thing that's more absurd is the implication that skydiving is safer then driving a car. Well, skydiving might be safer then driving on a rain slicked highway, at twice the legal speed, while hopped up on a cocktail of at least 3 different illegal drugs. Why even attempt to deny that skydiving is dangerous? Why are we trying to fool ourselves? Isn't the danger part of the appeal? A fair comparison would be to compare a skydive to a short trip in a car, not driving 10,000 miles. However, when compared this way, we realise that skydiving actually is dangerous... which should be obvious. This clearly wasn't the authors point. He was trying to deceive. Why? _Am__ You put the fun in "funnel" - craichead. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites annna 0 #15 October 9, 2003 Re: ' the author was trying to deceive' Are you trying to get some kind of conspiracy theory going ?! Bless, sure he was just trying to simplify something that can't be simplified - like me trying to put a statistic on my risk taking to placate my friends. Cheers for all the input tho - have decided on my future reply for 'Isn't it really dangerous?'. Yes. Next question. And i will refuse to expound further !! Is expound a word or did i just make that up .... hmmmm anna x Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites Fast 0 #16 October 9, 2003 Assuming the same exerience level overall, I would think, (just an opinion here) that they person who only jumps 17 times a year would have a higher level of risk per jump because they are not as current as the 170 jump per year person. However in reality, I doubt there is much of a way to compare the overall risk taken compared between the two. Its like trying to decide if the overall marginal risk of the 17 per year jumper out weighs the total added risk of of the extra jumps. Something along the lines of: 17 jumps * (risk + noncurrency) is <, >, or = 170 jumps * risk Pretty hard comparison to make honeslty. I know I would probally not jump if I could only make 17 per year... just not enough time in the air.~D Where troubles melt like lemon drops Away above the chimney tops That's where you'll find me. Swooping is taking one last poke at the bear before escaping it's cave - davelepka Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites AndyMan 7 #17 October 9, 2003 Quote Are you trying to get some kind of conspiracy theory going ?! Heavens no. A conspiracy would involve more then one person acting togeather. I think those who believe skydiving is as safe as other common activities are deluding themselves - or they know better and are deluding others. I don't know who wrote the quote you posted, so I don't know if they're misguided themselves, or are attempting to miguide others. Skydiving is dangerous. Although we can, should, and do minimize the risks, it will always be dangerous. Honestly, I think that's a part of the attraction. _Am__ You put the fun in "funnel" - craichead. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites headoverheels 333 #18 October 9, 2003 Quote 1. Most skydivers jump more than 17 times a year. Most people who make a skydive make only one. Another danger comparison I like to use on my non-skydiving pilot friends is that the chances of dying from making one skydive is statistically similar to that of flying one hour in a small airplane. It's pretty close for a C-172. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites Fast 0 #19 October 9, 2003 QuoteQuote 1. Most skydivers jump more than 17 times a year. Most people who make a skydive make only one. Another danger comparison I like to use on my non-skydiving pilot friends is that the chances of dying from making one skydive is statistically similar to that of flying one hour in a small airplane. It's pretty close for a C-172. I don't know if I would call tandem students skydivers. I know I sure as shit didn't think I was a skydiver after one tandem. I would say the same thing about aff.~D Where troubles melt like lemon drops Away above the chimney tops That's where you'll find me. Swooping is taking one last poke at the bear before escaping it's cave - davelepka Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites billvon 3,063 #20 October 10, 2003 It is true that, if an expert (D-license) and current skydiver jumps 17 times a year, he's safer over the course of a year than someone who drives 10,000 miles a year. Unfortunately, there are no expert and current skydivers who only jump 17 times a year. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites sducoach 0 #21 October 10, 2003 Thanks Bigun. You sound like a college professor Thank goodness there's a sane man teaching our youth these days....................... Blues Brother, J.E>James 4:8 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites sducoach 0 #22 October 10, 2003 Thanks Annna, I'll check it out. Just for your information there is only one thing more dangerous than skydiving............ Going out with Nightjumps!!!!!!!! Blues, J.E.James 4:8 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites CheshireCat 0 #23 October 10, 2003 Food for thought: a WARNING on ParaGear opening page states that “approximately one jump out of every 20,000 results in death” and “On the average, Ram-Air parachutes are expected to malfunction once in 333 activations”. They claim the data comes from USPA reports. All the stats that being published – do they include fatalities from jump plane crashes? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites kallend 2,105 #24 October 10, 2003 QuoteQuote 1. Most skydivers jump more than 17 times a year. Most people who make a skydive make only one. Quote That is true, but these people are officially designated "Passenger" by the FAA. Does a tandem jump count as one jump or two in recording the stats?... The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites pds 0 #25 October 10, 2003 not even going to read the whole thread. sue me. even my dumb ass knows this is a ridiculous comparison. skydiving is a perilous activity that demands a level of performance far exceeding that of driving a car. maybe a better stat would be percentage and severity of injuries vs deaths resultant of incidents in both activities.namaste, motherfucker. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites Prev 1 2 Next Page 1 of 2 Join the conversation You can post now and register later. 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RippedCord 0 #9 October 9, 2003 Actually, the quote is pretty spot-on. Using 2000 USPA data of 32 fatalities and an estimated 2,244,165 jumps Tom B, in Jump! Skydiving Made Fun & Easy, presents a fatality rate of one death for each 70,130 skydives. (Of course he doesn't go on to display a stunning lack of statistical comprehension, as the aforementioned site does, by qualifying it with If you make one jump in a year...) AMDG Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Remster 30 #10 October 9, 2003 QuoteCorrect! but only if you first you make an implicit assumption Then its not correct! Its an assumption based on another assumption. To me, that's pure speculation. Remster Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nightjumps 1 #11 October 9, 2003 Quote...what is the implicit assumption underlying that statement? There are procedures, based on r, for making inferences about the population correlation coefficient. However, these make the implicit assumption that the two variables are jointly normally distributed. When this assumption is not justified, it's better to use the non-parametric measure of the Spearman Rank Correlation Coefficient. Bottom line: Give actual values to variables. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kallend 2,105 #12 October 9, 2003 Quote Regarding the quoted paragraph below (from some groovy article online) - does anyone have any other kinda stats on the question we're always getting asked by friends, family, work colleagues - 'isn't it really dangerous ?!'. I usually mix up my reply to avoid the terminal boredom associated with answering the same question over and over - sometimes i'll say Yup, could die tomorrow its the most dangerous sport EVER and sometimes i'll tell people i'm more likely to die getting ravaged by a badger BUT the stats down there about if you jump 17 times in a year you're statistically at the same risk of dying jumping as dying in a car crash kinda surprised me ! regards, Anna x ***************************************** "The big question is always, "How dangerous is skydiving?" Each year, about 30 people die in parachuting accidents in the United States, or roughly one person per 100,000 jumps. Look at the US Skydiving Incident Reports to get an idea of the types of problems that lead to fatalities. If you make one jump in a year, your chance of dying is 1 in 100,000. How does the fatality rate in skydiving compare to other common activities? Since most adults in America drive cars, let's compare skydiving to driving. Roughly 40,000 people die each year in traffic accidents in the United States [ref]. That's 1.7 deaths per 100 million vehicle miles. Therefore, if you drive 10,000 miles per year, your chance of dying in a car wreck in any given year is something like 1 in 6,000. In other words, we accept a higher level of risk by getting into our cars every day than people do by occaisionally skydiving. You would have to jump 17 times per year for your risk of dying in a skydiving accident to equal your risk of dying in a car accident if you drive 10,000 miles per year. " ****************************************** 1. Most skydivers jump more than 17 times a year. 2. Assume for argument's sake that the data are accurate. The 17 jumps correspond to something in the vicinity of an hour of "at risk" time. Driving 10,000 miles corresponds to something like 200 hours of "at risk" time.... The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Aviatrr 0 #13 October 9, 2003 Quoteso therefore it is more dangerous driving to the DZ than jumping at the DZ. I'm sure you're joking here....but I hear too many people say that and they actually believe it. If anybody believes that driving to the DZ is more dangerous than jumping out of an airplane, they're incredibly stupid. When you step out of an airplane, YOU ARE DEAD UNTIL YOU DO SOMETHING TO PREVENT YOUR DEATH! I joke with my friends and tell them I'm a "dead man flying", but it's essentially the truth. Of course, with AAD's, people can argue that you have a 99.9% chance of surviving if you do nothing other than turn on your AAD before the jump...well, they'd probably be right...but that's another issue. We can't just say that skydivers are subject to X amount of risk by jumping Y times per year. It varies person to person. Who's more likely to get killed in the sport - a jumper that does 200 jumps a year, flies a large canopy at under 1:1 wing loading(and a reserve the same size), and has an AAD - or the guy that does 1000 jumps a year, flies a cross braced canopy loaded at 2.5:1(and a reserve at 2:1), competes in pond swooping, and does not use an AAD in their swoop rig? Of course, many people would say the second jumper stands a higher chance of getting killed in this sport, but again....it depends on the people. I, personally, would think the first jumper is more likely to be killed. The second knows their canopy intimately...and, let's face it, more people die under a perfectly good canopy than in any other situation. Mike Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
AndyMan 7 #14 October 9, 2003 It's an absurd comparison. The only thing that's more absurd is the implication that skydiving is safer then driving a car. Well, skydiving might be safer then driving on a rain slicked highway, at twice the legal speed, while hopped up on a cocktail of at least 3 different illegal drugs. Why even attempt to deny that skydiving is dangerous? Why are we trying to fool ourselves? Isn't the danger part of the appeal? A fair comparison would be to compare a skydive to a short trip in a car, not driving 10,000 miles. However, when compared this way, we realise that skydiving actually is dangerous... which should be obvious. This clearly wasn't the authors point. He was trying to deceive. Why? _Am__ You put the fun in "funnel" - craichead. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
annna 0 #15 October 9, 2003 Re: ' the author was trying to deceive' Are you trying to get some kind of conspiracy theory going ?! Bless, sure he was just trying to simplify something that can't be simplified - like me trying to put a statistic on my risk taking to placate my friends. Cheers for all the input tho - have decided on my future reply for 'Isn't it really dangerous?'. Yes. Next question. And i will refuse to expound further !! Is expound a word or did i just make that up .... hmmmm anna x Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Fast 0 #16 October 9, 2003 Assuming the same exerience level overall, I would think, (just an opinion here) that they person who only jumps 17 times a year would have a higher level of risk per jump because they are not as current as the 170 jump per year person. However in reality, I doubt there is much of a way to compare the overall risk taken compared between the two. Its like trying to decide if the overall marginal risk of the 17 per year jumper out weighs the total added risk of of the extra jumps. Something along the lines of: 17 jumps * (risk + noncurrency) is <, >, or = 170 jumps * risk Pretty hard comparison to make honeslty. I know I would probally not jump if I could only make 17 per year... just not enough time in the air.~D Where troubles melt like lemon drops Away above the chimney tops That's where you'll find me. Swooping is taking one last poke at the bear before escaping it's cave - davelepka Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
AndyMan 7 #17 October 9, 2003 Quote Are you trying to get some kind of conspiracy theory going ?! Heavens no. A conspiracy would involve more then one person acting togeather. I think those who believe skydiving is as safe as other common activities are deluding themselves - or they know better and are deluding others. I don't know who wrote the quote you posted, so I don't know if they're misguided themselves, or are attempting to miguide others. Skydiving is dangerous. Although we can, should, and do minimize the risks, it will always be dangerous. Honestly, I think that's a part of the attraction. _Am__ You put the fun in "funnel" - craichead. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
headoverheels 333 #18 October 9, 2003 Quote 1. Most skydivers jump more than 17 times a year. Most people who make a skydive make only one. Another danger comparison I like to use on my non-skydiving pilot friends is that the chances of dying from making one skydive is statistically similar to that of flying one hour in a small airplane. It's pretty close for a C-172. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Fast 0 #19 October 9, 2003 QuoteQuote 1. Most skydivers jump more than 17 times a year. Most people who make a skydive make only one. Another danger comparison I like to use on my non-skydiving pilot friends is that the chances of dying from making one skydive is statistically similar to that of flying one hour in a small airplane. It's pretty close for a C-172. I don't know if I would call tandem students skydivers. I know I sure as shit didn't think I was a skydiver after one tandem. I would say the same thing about aff.~D Where troubles melt like lemon drops Away above the chimney tops That's where you'll find me. Swooping is taking one last poke at the bear before escaping it's cave - davelepka Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
billvon 3,063 #20 October 10, 2003 It is true that, if an expert (D-license) and current skydiver jumps 17 times a year, he's safer over the course of a year than someone who drives 10,000 miles a year. Unfortunately, there are no expert and current skydivers who only jump 17 times a year. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
sducoach 0 #21 October 10, 2003 Thanks Bigun. You sound like a college professor Thank goodness there's a sane man teaching our youth these days....................... Blues Brother, J.E>James 4:8 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
sducoach 0 #22 October 10, 2003 Thanks Annna, I'll check it out. Just for your information there is only one thing more dangerous than skydiving............ Going out with Nightjumps!!!!!!!! Blues, J.E.James 4:8 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CheshireCat 0 #23 October 10, 2003 Food for thought: a WARNING on ParaGear opening page states that “approximately one jump out of every 20,000 results in death” and “On the average, Ram-Air parachutes are expected to malfunction once in 333 activations”. They claim the data comes from USPA reports. All the stats that being published – do they include fatalities from jump plane crashes? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kallend 2,105 #24 October 10, 2003 QuoteQuote 1. Most skydivers jump more than 17 times a year. Most people who make a skydive make only one. Quote That is true, but these people are officially designated "Passenger" by the FAA. Does a tandem jump count as one jump or two in recording the stats?... The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites pds 0 #25 October 10, 2003 not even going to read the whole thread. sue me. even my dumb ass knows this is a ridiculous comparison. skydiving is a perilous activity that demands a level of performance far exceeding that of driving a car. maybe a better stat would be percentage and severity of injuries vs deaths resultant of incidents in both activities.namaste, motherfucker. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites Prev 1 2 Next Page 1 of 2 Join the conversation You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account. Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible. Reply to this topic... × Pasted as rich text. Paste as plain text instead Only 75 emoji are allowed. × Your link has been automatically embedded. Display as a link instead × Your previous content has been restored. Clear editor × You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL. Insert image from URL × Desktop Tablet Phone Submit Reply 0 Go To Topic Listing
pds 0 #25 October 10, 2003 not even going to read the whole thread. sue me. even my dumb ass knows this is a ridiculous comparison. skydiving is a perilous activity that demands a level of performance far exceeding that of driving a car. maybe a better stat would be percentage and severity of injuries vs deaths resultant of incidents in both activities.namaste, motherfucker. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
