bhammond 0 #1 December 10, 2002 just got off the phone with a participant.... last dive was complete with one exception, 1 wacker lost about 5 people everything else flew nice for aprox 19 secs. looks like it will work for them .... Barry Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mustard 0 #2 December 10, 2002 How exciting! I am sure it will be today or tomorrow. They must be stoked. I can hardly wait to read what Billvon posts tonight!! *** DJan Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BikerBabe 0 #3 December 10, 2002 WOW! (OK, a little part of me is hoping they don't get it until Thursday, so I can be there to see it) Way to go...if only 5 people were out, then it already IS an unofficial new world record, right?Never meddle in the affairs of dragons, for you are crunchy and taste good with ketchup! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
skybytch 273 #4 December 10, 2002 Woo hoo! Thanks for the update Barry! btw.. how come you aren't on this one? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
bhammond 0 #5 December 10, 2002 well we did hold a 297 for about 10 sec I think, in Russia, but either way you put it a 295 for 19 sec, if thats correct , quite a feat.... Wish I was there... Barry Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
bhammond 0 #6 December 10, 2002 I wish I was, multiple issues , and that damm thing called work Barry Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
eeneR 3 #7 December 10, 2002 Quote (OK, a little part of me is hoping they don't get it until Thursday, so I can be there to see it) I hear ya there!!! Quote Way to go...if only 5 people were out, then it already IS an unofficial new world record, right? From what chris said no...they have it bid as 300 so they need to get the full 300 in.... This is exciting....damn...I will be landing there in 25 hours.... Thats ok, then they go on to break that record...She is not a "Dumb Blonde" - She is a "Light-Haired Detour Off The Information Superhighway." eeneR TF#72, FB#4130, Incauto Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Enrique 0 #8 December 11, 2002 If they get the record, will they continue jumping thru Saturday or stop and get drunk when they get their 300 and stop doing big ways? I'm driving to Eloy on Friday (6 hour drive) and I would like to know if there will be anything record attempts to see on Saturday. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
bhammond 0 #9 December 11, 2002 The original plan was to get the 300 way then if time permits add people, currently they have 342 on the roster, be my guess they will jump as much as possible , weather permitting... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
wlie 0 #10 December 11, 2002 This just in from the local newsMy other ride is the relative wind. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kallend 2,106 #11 December 11, 2002 If the participants on a 300-way make mistakes, on average, only once in every 83 skydives, then the probability that there will be one perfect 300-way skydive in 24 tries is still only 0.5 or 50% To raise the odds of success to 90%, each skydiver, on average, needs to be error free 99.2% of the time. Just thought it put it all in perspective. ... The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mikkif 0 #12 December 11, 2002 You know, I was wondering about this. At what point does breaking a record become statistically unlikely? (95% confidence, say) BTW, the mean stats are interesting, but what would really be worth knowing is the standard deviation, right? Wait a minute. Is your math right? If you are saying that there is a 1:83 probability that a skydiver will make a mistake on a skydive, than would there be a 300:83 probability that someone would make a mistake each 300-way attempt? Or are you saying that there is a 1:83 probability that any given skydive will have a mistake made, in which case, that is their overall odds of success (have to go higher for level of experience and planning, down for degree of difficulty)? I think you are saying the latter, but making it cumulative. There is no sequencing here, in other words it's like a coin toss. You can't say that there is a 24:83 probability there will be a successful attempt, but you can say that is it probable that 0.29 (24/83) jumps will have a mistake made. That can't be right. Are you sure about the 83 number? Sorry, I'm not really sure about any of this all of a sudden. Perhaps I shouldn't have taken quite so much Estacy before posting...nerd alert> Freedom -- Expression -- Spirit Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
crazy 0 #14 December 11, 2002 Quote Wait a minute. Is your math right? If you are saying that there is a 1:83 probability that a skydiver will make a mistake on a skydive, than would there be a 300:83 probability that someone would make a mistake each 300-way attempt? Of course his math is right! 1/83 chance to make a mistake means 82/83 chances to make it right. This is for every skydiver. Put 300 skydivers together, the chances that everybody make it right on a given record attempt is (82/83)^300 ~= 2.6%. This also means that there is 97.4% chances of failure on each record attempt. The chances that all the 24 attempts fail are 0.974^24 ~= 53%. Hence, the chance that at least one of the attemps is an actual record is 47%, close enough to 50%. Is this nerdy enough? Or shall we also study the impact of individual skill levels on the overall chances of success? -- Come Skydive Asia Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nacmacfeegle 0 #15 December 11, 2002 Regardless of probability of failure to perform.... The record will build on the last dive, of the last day.....They always do... -------------------- He who receives an idea from me, receives instruction himself without lessening mine; as he who lights his taper at mine, receives light without darkening me. Thomas Jefferson Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
crazy 0 #16 December 11, 2002 Quote Regardless of probability of failure to perform.... The record will build on the last dive, of the last day.....They always do... If they planned things properly, the weather has to be like shit on the last day (after an attempt hold for 1 second on the previous day) and they will complete it during a miraculous break in the clouds at the last minute before packing. We all know they can do it and they have to be creative to keep the thrill untill the end -- Come Skydive Asia Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mikkif 0 #17 December 11, 2002 Damned null hypothesis. OK, as a punishment for forgeting to multiply probabilities, I did a little math for some bigger-ways we may see down the road (please check my calculations): Looking for 1:2 probability Assuming same 1:83 chance of a mistake (any one person) probability of all attempts failing = (1-((82/83)^waysize))^attempts for each waysize, k = 1-((82/83)^waysize) is a constant, and attempts required to have 0.5 probability = log base k (0.5) round up way attempts required ----------------------------------- 300 26 320 34 340 43 360 55 380 70 400 89 500 297 1000 127,370 If I've screwed this up, my punishment wll be to calculate the level of perfection required in each participant in order to reach 50% probability of completing a 1000-way in under 100 attempts.Freedom -- Expression -- Spirit Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nacmacfeegle 0 #18 December 11, 2002 "If I've screwed this up, my punishment wll be to calculate the level of perfection required in each participant in order to reach 50% probability of completing a 1000-way in under 100 attempts. " Nope your punishment will be explaining why there have been something like 100 (Anapa, Ubon Ratchatani, Chicago, and still counting at Eloy) attempts to build a 300 way already......Statistical anomaly?Hehehe, statistical probability explained....its the million to one shot that shows up nine times out of ten.... -------------------- He who receives an idea from me, receives instruction himself without lessening mine; as he who lights his taper at mine, receives light without darkening me. Thomas Jefferson Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mikkif 0 #19 December 11, 2002 QuoteNope your punishment will be explaining why there have been something like 100 ... attempts to build a 300 way already..... And no completions. Well, I'd like to know where the number 83 came from (and its std dev), for one. Seems pretty high for a skydive of this degree of difficulty, although the planning, preparation and selection of the participants might drive it up. Quoteits the million to one shot that shows up nine times out of ten.. Or, it shows up the tenth time, and not again for another 999,990.Freedom -- Expression -- Spirit Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
flyhi 24 #20 December 11, 2002 Quote statistical probability explained....its the million to one shot that shows up nine times out of ten.... If you're one in a million, then there's a thousand people just like you in China.Shit happens. And it usually happens because of physics. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kallend 2,106 #21 December 11, 2002 Quote If I've screwed this up, my punishment wll be to calculate the level of perfection required in each participant in order to reach 50% probability of completing a 1000-way in under 100 attempts. How about a spanking, instead?... The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kallend 2,106 #22 December 11, 2002 Quote Of course his math is right! Why, Thank You, Chewie.... The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nacmacfeegle 0 #23 December 11, 2002 It would be kinda embarassing if it was wrong.... -------------------- He who receives an idea from me, receives instruction himself without lessening mine; as he who lights his taper at mine, receives light without darkening me. Thomas Jefferson Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dreamsville 0 #24 December 11, 2002 At one time I was able to do this calculation (had to do it to get through grad school), but now find myself needing an explanation. Perhaps you could elaborate briefly on your calculations, even as they may be up setting (is that a pun?) the record at this moment. BTW, we will be jumping that little 182 again this weekend. HarryI don't drink during the day, so I don't know what it is about this airline. I keep falling out the door of the plane. Harry, FB #4143 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kallend 2,106 #25 December 11, 2002 QuoteAt one time I was able to do this calculation (had to do it to get through grad school), but now find myself needing an explanation. Perhaps you could elaborate briefly on your calculations, even as they may be up setting (is that a pun?) the record at this moment. BTW, we will be jumping that little 182 again this weekend. Harry Harry: Both "Crazy" and "Mikkif" have explained it correctly. It's all about multiplying probabilities. I can hardly wait to jump out of a Cessna again. I have to spend all day Saturday at Commencement, but Sunday I'll be there (weather permitting).... The only sure way to survive a canopy collision is not to have one. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
