AFF IRC Pass Rates

[markbaur 0]

According to the statistics presented by USPA at the AFF Course Director Standardization Meeting on February 1st, the success rate has increased from 53% in 2000 (221 Candidates), to 71% in 2001(255 Candidates), then 85% in 2002 (244).
I am not convinced that the reported increase in the success rate represents an increase in the completion rate per course. USPA reports pass and fail, but not incompletes, and the statistics are meaningless without all three numbers.

You'd like to know if you are going to pass, so 85% sounds pretty good. But suppose USPA ignores incompletes, and imagine there's a course like this:

-- 10 folks in class on the first day,
-- 5 of the 10 earn a rating,
-- 1 person fails,
-- the other 4 take incompletes.

I hope USPA would report this as 83% pass (5 of 6), not 50% pass (5 of 10). Otherwise, an 85% pass rate means nearly everybody makes it, and the more likely explanation for that is lowered standards, not improved preparation.

So do 8 or 9 out of every 10 candidates in class the first day leave with a rating a week later? I don't think so. My observation in a number of courses over the past year is that the average completion rate in any one course is around 50%. There are ways to improve your odds, but that's a different thread.

BTW, the format of practice jumps followed by pass/fail evaluation jumps encourages marginal candidates to take incompletes. Unless a candidate has made an evaluation jump, there is virtually no penalty. The previous system of collecting points on each jump, with points carried over in case of an incomplete, meant there was no advantage to continuing in another course, and so no point in taking an incomplete if you were in trouble. I'd like to know if the incomplete percentage has gone up, down, or stayed about the same over the period covering the change in evaluation systems.

Mark

[SkySlut 0]

I would be really interested in finding out the incomplete numbers as well. People ask me all the time the pass/fail rate. The only thing that I can tell them is what I had in my course. That would be really valuable information!!! Please let me know if you find anything out. Mark, do you think that Uncle Don has any ideas on what those numbers are???

[markbaur 0]

Don knows the pass/fail/incomplete rate for his own courses, as do each of the course directors for their own, but only USPA knows the aggregate.
Part of the problem is how to count. Suppose a candidate takes an incomplete at one course, then finishes up at another course in the next calender year. Should he count as one candidate or two? An incomplete, a pass, or both? I know one individual who took an incomplete with one course director, started another course from scratch with a different course director and took an incomplete in that course, then went back to the first course director. How would you count that?
Some things I'd like to know, but we're unlikely to find out:
-- for candidates starting from scratch, the pass/fail/incomplete rate;
-- for candidates starting from incomplete, the pass/fail/incomplete rate;
-- for incompletes, the return/non-return rate.
I'd also like to know if the rates are different (in a statistically significant way) for different course directors, and if so, if that is because their candidate pools are different, or because their course performance standards are different.
Mark

[SkySlut 0]

Yep, that information would be great to have and it is unlikely that we would ever see that put together in a statistically significant way, but I would still like to see the incomplete ratio. I agree that it wouldnt be the most accurate assesment, but interesting none the less. That information should be easily available I would think.

I am going to be in Deland this week working. If I bump into Don, I will have to ask him what his take is on all of this.