DB Cooper

[snowmman 3]

This could be a stunning find because it gives us a statistical idea of surface wind direction at Portland International Airport in Nov.

In short, it says ESE or SE winds are statistically most likely, from '61-'90, in Nov. And by a significant amount.

It does show S winds as being next likely, like my NOAA daily map showed for the daily report. But winds shift during the day, and it's hard to find hourly data for '71
Although a 3 CDROM set can be purchased that has it, supposedly.

But I like the idea that it shows that the rose shows there's a statistical likelihood of winds from the ESE which we would need for a DZ that ends near Vancouver Lake.

The attached .emf file should open in windows picture and fax viewer if you click on it. Tell me if you have problems. You probably have to zoom in to read everything in it.
downloaded from
ftp://ftp.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/downloads/climate/windrose/oregon/portland


details on what it means are at:
http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/climate/windrose.html

This is very deep info. It analyzes wind direction and frequency for 30 years from 1961 to 1990 at a weather station, and produces what's called a "wind rose".

What's interesting is that a single wind rose can give a probability estimate for 1961-90. The site produced them for each month, at each weather station. I have attached November, for the Portland Intl. Airport station.

Surface wind speed is easier to get for a particular day. Around 10-11 knots with a max of 14 knots, still looks correct for Portland on 11/24/71. (downloaded from http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/climatedata.html

I guess mean? don't know hourly.


quoting the site:

A wind rose gives a very succinct but information-laden view of how wind speed and direction are typically distributed at a particular location. Presented in a circular format, the wind rose shows the frequency of winds blowing FROM particular directions. The length of each "spoke" around the circle is related to the frequency of time that the wind blows from a particular direction. Each concentric circle represents a different frequency, emanating from zero at the center to increasing frequencies at the outer circles. The wind roses shown here contain additional information, in that each spoke is broken down into discrete frequency categories that show the percentage of time that winds blow from a particular direction and at certain speed ranges. All wind roses shown here use 16 cardinal directions, such as north (N), NNE, NE, etc.

[georger 247]

It could also mean he didnt say much and the
primary witnesses were too frightened to remember
details.

Snowmman I also want to advise that due to severe
weather damage issues all meetings concerning money and hydrology have been called off until who knows when.
Similar if not better resources are available in your State
should you care to pursue them. Good luck.

[snowmman 3]

I have an excerpt from a local news article 11/26/71 that said Tina was from Bucks County, PA. It named a town but Bucks County is sufficient. It's in the SE corner of PA.

[snowmman 3]

  Quote

Similar if not better resources are available in your State
should you care to pursue them.

hmm. and exactly what State would that be georger...

[georger 247]

  Quote

Taking everything we know and putting it all together, I think we have a real shot at figuring where Cooper actually jumped.

At 7:42 PM PST, 6 minutes after takeoff, Cooper tries to open the airstairs. Not familiar with opening them in flight, he was perplexed when they only partially opened. Cooper called to the cockpit to relay the problem. Captain Scott slows and levels the flight and the stairs drop to approximately 20 degrees.

Cooper sees this and realizes the stairs are being held up against the airstream. By the time Cooper figures this out his plan has been side tracked by the delay in opening and has put him outside of his planned DZ. He now has to think on his feet and come up with what he is going to do.

He decides to go for it and make it up as he goes along, after all, that is what he was going to do anyway, just closer to Seattle.

At 8:05 PM PST, Cooper tells Scott everything is fine when asked over the intercom. He is ready to go forward but he has to test out the stairs and how they are going to respond to his weight. Five minutes later at 8:10 "ish" he starts out onto the stairs and they drop down further.

The stairs are now open enough that the cabin pressure gauge starts to oscillate as reported in the TTY log or fluctuate as stated in the handwritten log and recreated from tests conducted by the FBI.

Cooper spends several minutes testing out the stairs and trying to get some idea of where he his. Once he orients himself, Cooper jumps, the stairs snap up causing the pressure bump felt by the crew.

The crew had already reported the abnormal fluctuations so they believed this "bump" was just a continuation of what started at 8:11 PM. Because of this they don't report it. They do have conversation, however, Radazcak said he could see the northern suburbs of Portland when this occurred. He also said it occurred 5 to 10 minutes after last contact at 8:05 PM.

There you may have it. Now define drift and a DZ
and you might want an archaeologist in scuba gear
to stand by, and a hydrologist for flow and distribution probabilities. (Thats what they do for a living) The bones should have fresh dna! Suggest some young guys very good in the field and looking for publicity
at "23andme.com" or use some of the folks who did snp assays after 9-11, if this goes that far.

[georger 247]

Ok. Maybe he was a nuclear engineer from over at
Hanford or Trojan who had too many rads and wanted
to go out with a "splash".

[georger 247]

Is it true: If Rataczack said Portland its Portland and
he had flown the route many times under all kinds
of conditions ?

[377 22]

  Quote

This could be a stunning find because it gives us a statistical idea of surface wind direction at Portland International Airport in Nov.

In short, it says ESE or SE winds are statistically most likely, from '61-'90, in Nov. And by a significant amount.

It does show S winds as being next likely, like my NOAA daily map showed for the daily report. But winds shift during the day, and it's hard to find hourly data for '71
Although a 3 CDROM set can be purchased that has it, supposedly.

But I like the idea that it shows that the rose shows there's a statistical likelihood of winds from the ESE which we would need for a DZ that ends near Vancouver Lake.

The attached .emf file should open in windows picture and fax viewer if you click on it. Tell me if you have problems. You probably have to zoom in to read everything in it.
downloaded from
ftp://ftp.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/downloads/climate/windrose/oregon/portland


details on what it means are at:
http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/climate/windrose.html

This is very deep info. It analyzes wind direction and frequency for 30 years from 1961 to 1990 at a weather station, and produces what's called a "wind rose".

What's interesting is that a single wind rose can give a probability estimate for 1961-90. The site produced them for each month, at each weather station. I have attached November, for the Portland Intl. Airport station.

Surface wind speed is easier to get for a particular day. Around 10-11 knots with a max of 14 knots, still looks correct for Portland on 11/24/71. (downloaded from http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/climatedata.html

I guess mean? don't know hourly.


quoting the site:

A wind rose gives a very succinct but information-laden view of how wind speed and direction are typically distributed at a particular location. Presented in a circular format, the wind rose shows the frequency of winds blowing FROM particular directions. The length of each "spoke" around the circle is related to the frequency of time that the wind blows from a particular direction. Each concentric circle represents a different frequency, emanating from zero at the center to increasing frequencies at the outer circles. The wind roses shown here contain additional information, in that each spoke is broken down into discrete frequency categories that show the percentage of time that winds blow from a particular direction and at certain speed ranges. All wind roses shown here use 16 cardinal directions, such as north (N), NNE, NE, etc.

I fished commercially in the Pacific NW in the early 70s. If it was rainy in Nov, the winds seemed to always be from approx SE. Southerly winds and rain had a very high correlation after Sept. We often got nailed by strong Southerly storms if we fished past October. NW winds were not normally associated with rain that time of year. The rain in late Nov. tells me that winds were likely SE and not N or NW. There are probably stats that show the correllation of rain and generally Southerly winds in late fall early winter.

377

2018 marks half a century as a skydiver. Trained by the late Perry Stevens D-51 in 1968.

[georger 247]

Or a bowling ball hurtled from space!

[georger 247]

  Quote

I have an excerpt from a local news article 11/26/71 that said Tina was from Bucks County, PA. It named a town but Bucks County is sufficient. It's in the SE corner of PA.

Thats what I have also. I had Schaffners home but cant find it. Also have an old wx report that winds were from the E to SE between 10-20 mph that evening but cant find that file either, I have mentioned this report several times but realise without vertification its worthless/futile.

[georger 247]

good post!

[Ckret 0]

I have posted the winds for Portland, the direction and from 7000 feet to ground. The info was gathered from an average of recorded winds from 8 PM to 9 PM 11/24/1971.

Great stuff Sluggo?

[snowmman 3]

(edit) I just saw ckret's post. I'll have to find ckret's data again.

377 gave some anecdotal info about storms and wind in that general area. i.e. that accompanying rain statistically gives a further hint about wind direction at that location.

We can get the same hint, I believe, from the wind rose, without being so anecdotal.

We know surface wind speed that day at that location.

  Quote

Surface wind speed is easier to get for a particular day. Around 10-11 knots with a max of 14 knots, still looks correct for Portland on 11/24/71. (downloaded from http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/climatedata.html

So we can look at the wind rose, and just look at cases where the wind speed was 10-11 knots or more.
The wind rose uses meter/sec. The conversion is
knots x 0.515 = meters/sec
So let's say 5.6 meter/sec

That means all the yellow data can be ignored in the rose. (light wind almost equally likely from all directions)

To have a wind strong enough to meet measurements, it looks like it's very likely to have come from ESE or SE.

I suspect this is also correlated to an accompanying rain, based on what 377 has said.

I think it's also reasonable to conclude that the wind direction in this case will be similar to 10,000 ft. We can probably estimate the wind gradient as we go up in altitude, based on the gradient that's been reported before, nearby, on 11/24/71. Just from memory, I think that was a peak around 20 knots at 10,000 ft?

So I think we have info for a canopy drift line guess.

Now we have fuzziness about where to put the jump line...at least 1 or 2 minutes of fuzziness around the curvy flight path, till PDX. (depends on opinions)

If Cooper landed in heavy residential areas, he might have been spotted. So we might prefer guessing at drift lines and jump points that meet the canopy drift line requirements, and flight path requirements, but end in more open land.

I suppose using today's Google Earth will confuse us, because Vancouver is so much more developed. Just guessing from the '71 air map, it seems there's a lot more open area.

So maybe there's nothing to make one guess towards Vancouver Lake, exactly.

I still am biased to thinking that the jump point on the flight path, is somehow aligned to the Ingram money find, but maybe not.

I'm also biased against much hydrology at work for moving money. But I have no data/insight there.

[georger 247]

  Quote

(edit) I just saw ckret's post. I'll have to find ckret's data again.

377 gave some anecdotal info about storms and wind in that general area. i.e. that accompanying rain statistically gives a further hint about wind direction at that location.

We can get the same hint, I believe, from the wind rose, without being so anecdotal.

We know surface wind speed that day at that location.

  Quote

Surface wind speed is easier to get for a particular day. Around 10-11 knots with a max of 14 knots, still looks correct for Portland on 11/24/71. (downloaded from http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/climatedata.html

So we can look at the wind rose, and just look at cases where the wind speed was 10-11 knots or more.
The wind rose uses meter/sec. The conversion is
knots x 0.515 = meters/sec
So let's say 5.6 meter/sec

That means all the yellow data can be ignored in the rose. (light wind almost equally likely from all directions)

To have a wind strong enough to meet measurements, it looks like it's very likely to have come from ESE or SE.

I suspect this is also correlated to an accompanying rain, based on what 377 has said.

I think it's also reasonable to conclude that the wind direction in this case will be similar to 10,000 ft. We can probably estimate the wind gradient as we go up in altitude, based on the gradient that's been reported before, nearby, on 11/24/71. Just from memory, I think that was a peak around 20 knots at 10,000 ft?

So I think we have info for a canopy drift line guess.

Now we have fuzziness about where to put the jump line...at least 1 or 2 minutes of fuzziness around the curvy flight path, till PDX. (depends on opinions)

If Cooper landed in heavy residential areas, he might have been spotted. So we might prefer guessing at drift lines and jump points that meet the canopy drift line requirements, and flight path requirements, but end in more open land.

I suppose using today's Google Earth will confuse us, because Vancouver is so much more developed. Just guessing from the '71 air map, it seems there's a lot more open area.

So maybe there's nothing to make one guess towards Vancouver Lake, exactly.

I still am biased to thinking that the jump point on the flight path, is somehow aligned to the Ingram money find, but maybe not.

I'm also biased against much hydrology at work for moving money. But I have no data/insight there.

Where is SAFE and his calcs?

I wouldnt worry too much about Tena Bar, just go
where the data takes you. Strike a circle of probability
based on time at several points on the new flight path
and see where drift and drop winds up based on 10 knot wind. Its the direction and line that matters most.
The descent line t1...tn can be adjusted to better data.

[georger 247]

I'm also biased against much hydrology at work for moving money. But I have no data/insight there.

[Ckret 0]

The winds and direction for an 8:15 jump + or - one minute.



direction/ wind speed/ height
225 degrees 20 knots 7,000
230 degrees 25 knots 5,000
235 degrees 20 knots 2,000
235 degrees 15 knots surface

[dnhump 1]

Quade,
To you personally and publicly, I apologize. I am abrasive, at the least. I'm sorry.
I get angry when "skydiving" and "criminal activity" are combined. From now on I shall be more thoughtful about what I say and how I say it.
I felt you were locking me out of the discussion, because I wasn't seeing any of my posts published.
I hope you accept my apology and continue with the fun...

[Ckret 0]

The money now brings us home. We can reasonably state the money arrived at its location by nature not at the hand of someone. From its condition and position we can conclude the money arrived at the discovery location still in the bag. which, of course, is a big clue that the bag either broke away from Cooper when he jumped or he died in the jump and bag eventually broke away from his body.

We now need someone to jump from a plane with a cloth bag full of 20 lbs of paper (tied as Cooper tied his) attached to themselves. This will test the theory of the bag separating from Cooper upon jumping. If we can prove the bag broke free, we then need to drop a cloth bag from 10,000 ft with 20 pounds of paper to see how far it drifts. Or we can just assume the bag broke free based on the facts of the money find and skip the jump.

Once we have the distance the bag can travel, a hydrologist needs to pinpoint a location nearest to the 8:15 PM flight path that could drain into the Columbia. If the pieces of the puzzle fit we solved part of the mystery. If it is way off, back to work.

[snowmman 3]

dnhump. as long as we're talking apologies, I always thought I owed nickdg one cause I mister bill'ed off him way back, and I never met the guy and don't even know what a mr. bill. is. He probably won't know what the hell I'm talking about, but I wanted to apologize.

  Quote

Quade,
To you personally and publicly, I apologize. I am abrasive, at the least. I'm sorry.
I get angry when "skydiving" and "criminal activity" are combined. From now on I shall be more thoughtful about what I say and how I say it.
I felt you were locking me out of the discussion, because I wasn't seeing any of my posts published.
I hope you accept my apology and continue with the fun...

[Sluggo_Monster 0]

Not FUNNY!

Web Page
Blog
NORJAK Forum

[snowmman 3]

Ckret
You posted a picture of the supposed money bag a long time back. Open top, typical, bank "money sack" if I'm not mistaken. Not a zippered bag or anything like that.

Long term, on the ground, no matter how it was tied with rope, the rope would eventually loosen and money could dribble out. Or maybe the bag would decompose before that. Hard to tell which would happen first.

But:

Although the money is a flexible material, it's also possible that the money bag exploded on impact.
(edit) maybe not a full explosion..tear, etc.
I've seen heavy nylon bags drop 3000 ft and explode.

But it all depends on what it hits. Hitting mud (we know it was raining) can absorb a lot of shock. Don't know about hitting water or shredding on bushes or trees.

So I would start with: if the bag separates from Cooper and lands on soft ground in that area, (it was Nov, so ground may already be saturated from rainy season?) does the bag explode and bundles everywhere?

Showing that the bag doesn't explode, and the bundles don't display the shock impact that georger referred to, would make it plausible that the money could have arrived on the ground independently of cooper.

People with experience doing air drops might be able to chime in here, about whether a bag with money would survive as a bag once it hits the ground in freefall.

  Quote

The money now brings us home. We can reasonably state the money arrived at its location by nature not at the hand of someone. From its condition and position we can conclude the money arrived at the discovery location still in the bag. which, of course, is a big clue that the bag either broke away from Cooper when he jumped or he died in the jump and bag eventually broke away from his body.

We now need someone to jump from a plane with a cloth bag full of 20 lbs of paper (tied as Cooper tied his) attached to themselves. This will test the theory of the bag separating from Cooper upon jumping. If we can prove the bag broke free, we then need to drop a cloth bag from 10,000 ft with 20 pounds of paper to see how far it drifts. Or we can just assume the bag broke free based on the facts of the money find and skip the jump.

Once we have the distance the bag can travel, a hydrologist needs to pinpoint a location nearest to the 8:15 PM flight path that could drain into the Columbia. If the pieces of the puzzle fit we solved part of the mystery. If it is way off, back to work.

[snowmman 3]

  Quote

Once we have the distance the bag can travel, a hydrologist needs to pinpoint a location nearest to the 8:15 PM flight path that could drain into the Columbia.

Ckret: you're jumping the gun here. You immediately talk about the Columbia for water movement. It may be most likely, but the Vancouver Lake, Shillapoo Creek, flooding to Lower River Rd theory I threw out, is possible also.

Because Vancouver Lake is so large, it's not immediately dismissable, I think.

georger was the first to introduce this alternate water path. I posted jpgs of the distance across Shilapoo in that creek, from the north channel of Vancouver Lake, and it's not that bad. It could actually be more plausible as the low velocity water movement that georger seems to like better.

I'm not pushing this idea. Just don't see why you jumped to the Columbia already.

[snowmman 3]

  Quote

I wouldnt worry too much about Tena Bar, just go
where the data takes you. Strike a circle of probability
based on time at several points on the new flight path
and see where drift and drop winds up based on 10 knot wind. Its the direction and line that matters most.
The descent line t1...tn can be adjusted to better data.

No, you're thinking discrete drift lines when there's nothing about the 8:15 "guess" that says we need to step in discrete time quanta.

The '72 map introduced this idea of discrete drift line predictions, which makes no sense for what we're talking about. It was a shortcut cuz they didn't have the right tools then.


We have to draw a drift "zone" ..If the canopy drift distance is fixed (because we know chute/load/wind) then it will create a line that's parallel to the flight path.
This line should have a thickness that covers the drift line prediction variance. Then we'll have a ground target line...a fattish one.

It's not about circles. If you start thinking circles, it's all wrong and we might miss something?

[Orange1 0]

  Quote

Thieves do not deserve to win, but they do 90 per cent of the time.
Stealing makes me MAD

Interesting angle considering we are talking about a THIEF when we are talking about DB Cooper. (Possibly when we are talking about Duane as well but I don't have the details behind all those prison sentences you mentioned)

Skydiving: wasting fossil fuels just for fun.

[Orange1 0]

  Quote

When Ckret posted the item about the print being found on the glass, I did doubt it and still do as other information he has posted has been found to not be true.

Ya ya ya... this ckret-bashing is getting really irritating. There are guys posting some really valuable stuff and this constant side-tracking in what looks to have become a personal vendetta is adding no value.

I have a question for the forum: I would like to know if there are any posters - other than Jo - out there who do not believe that ckret wants to solve the case, and that he is being deliberately obtuse because he somehow doesn't want Duane to be the one.

Personally I'm convinced that if he had been shown a shred of EVIDENCE that Duane had anything to do with it he would have followed it up thoroughly.

Skydiving: wasting fossil fuels just for fun.