DB Cooper

[snowmman 3]

Quote

Quote

Oh, and what's the latest on the NIGHT CLERK?

Hastur was part of the Cuthulu mythology.
At points, he is described as a benign shepherd.
At other times, he is something that kills you in an ugly fashion.

However, Hastur was called "He Who Shall Not Be Named"
because when you spoke his name, he would appear to you, but not in a good mood. Summoning him was a bad idea.

Since the Night Clerk is not going to be named, and seems
to be another of the fairly mythical characters in this tale,
the parallels are uncanny at this point.

I vote that we start calling him Hastur.


From now on, we can assign any unnamed, secret beings with the names of other characters from mythology to keep them straight.

Reply> funny. And Sluggo can put up a page of pseudo-nyms.

well Sluggo got mad when I suggested he track Facts + Myths. He wanted just Facts.

If he needs to track Facts presented as Myths and Myths presented as Facts, along with Myths presented as Myths and Facts presented as Facts, I think he's going to want a pay raise? Maybe he can squeeze it in the margins of the web pages though, and it can be done on budget.

[georger 247]

Quote

Didnt Pynchon do a year or two in physics? If he believed that there are gravity waves, then they would have a spectrum which could be refracted and spread out into a "gravity rainbow." I want to generate gravity waves, invert them and use them to cancel Earth's gravity when I jump. Beats the hell out of a canopy. Sluggo, Georger, Snow, when can you start design work on my prototype?

I still wonder how Cooper KNEW he could jump the 727. I didn't know that in 71 and I dont think many others did. Not even the NWA crew knew that. So we have Cooper armed with narrowly distributed 727 knowledge that has its roots in Boeing. How far removed from Boeing was Cooper? Did he work there? Did he know someone who did?

377

I think you make some very large assumptions.

I dont see special knowlede is required. You are
turning something that is essentially simple into a
technological-historical-epistemological-ontological morass.

One can simply observe the plane has a rear door,
ie. a hole in the back of the plane - through which stairs lower and protrude. You could forget the stairs
and jump through the hole. Rear exists have advantage over side exit. You dont have to be a
parachutist or engineer to see and "know" that,
as a probability. Anyone with military time would
see that in one second. The rest of the world would
see it in 30 seconds if looking for a "door" (escape
route).

It is fairly likely he knew that before getting on the
plane. His notes were pre-pared? His plan preset.

Then you can get more complicated: Boeing, NWA, Vietnam, WWII, engineer, draftsman, military occupation, reads books, looks at photos, is a genius, has some special knowledge base or
training, etc...

When confronted by multicomplex explanations the
simplest is usually the best.

Cooper could have made this observation standing on the ground or in an airport watching - people
offload from a 727.

Asserting Cooper had technical knowlegde or experience requires proof. Otherwise we have an average Joe who used parachuting to conduct a hijack and then he vanishes after bailing with no
trace except for money found at Tina Bar - a very
odd place!

[snowmman 3]

good points, georger.

But:

Most planes have doors in the back (or somewhere). Ventral or side?

So you're saying 727 was special choice or not special choice? Just random?

Was there any intelligence in side door exit vs ventral exit?

Any theory is fine....although if such an exit was obvious to Cooper why not to others, earlier?

(edit) The apparent Cooper+n-caused FAA FAR here from June 24, 1972

http://rgl.faa.gov/Regulatory_and_Guidance_Library%5CrgNPRM.nsf/0/666840BC661701298525692300644AB4?OpenDocument

"AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration, DOT
ACTION: Notice of Proposed Rulemaking

14 CFR Parts 25, 121

SUMMARY: The Federal Aviation Administration is considering rule making with respect to Parts 25 and 121 of the Federal Aviation Regulations to provide additional security on all large passenger-carrying turbojet powered airplanes operated under Part 121 by requiring that a means be provided to prevent the opening of central exits and tail cone exits during flight.
DATES: All communications must be received on or before July 24, 1972."

...
"In spite of concerted efforts made by the FAA and the air carriers, incidents continue to occur wherein the safety of the flight of aircraft engaged in passenger-carrying operations under Part 121 of the Federal Aviation Regulations has been jeopardized by persons intending to harm the crew or take command of the airplane. On a number of occasions in recent hijackings, the ventral exit of an airplane has been opened and a hijacker aboard has parachuted from the airplane through that exit. The agency recognizes that every possible step must be taken to deter persons from boarding aircraft for such a hijacking purpose. Accordingly, the FAA deems it appropriate to propose certain amendments to Parts 25 and 121."

..
"However, it is to be noted that to achieve compliance with the proposed regulation both the ventral exit and tail cone exit would have to continue to meet all of the requirements applicable to their approval as emergency exits. Specifically, to achieve compliance, the conditions that would have to be met to obtain approval of modification to the locking mechanisms of these two exits are as follows:
(1) The mechanism must be locked while the airplane is aloft;
(2) Takeoff of the airplane cannot be started if either ventral or tail cone is not locked; and
(3) The exit must be available for use in the event of an emergency."

A little bit late, heh!

[377 22]

And how would Cooper know that 727s weren't manufactured with a device preventing in flight ventral door/stair deployment? Just seeing the door open on the ground tells you zero about possible in flight interlocks. The Cooper Vane is an easily visually spotted external mod, but Boeing could have gone for an electronic solution taking info from the air data computer and using it to lock the door.

I still think Cooper KNEW he could jump the 727.

377

2018 marks half a century as a skydiver. Trained by the late Perry Stevens D-51 in 1968.

[snowmman 3]

Quote

And how would Cooper know that 727s weren't manufactured with a device preventing in flight ventral door/stair deployment? Just seeing the door open on the ground tells you zero about possible in flight interlocks. The Cooper Vane is an easily visually spotted external mod, but Boeing could have gone for an electronic solution taking info from the air data computer and using it to lock the door.

I still think Cooper KNEW he could jump the 727.

377

Also, we know that 727 apparently did flight test with something about the door open, right?

So it's not that Cooper theorized something that had no possible proof before.

So if someone uses a behavior that is known to a small group, do we assume he just looked at something and deduced the behavior, didn't care and was a lunatic or willing to roll the dice on it, or had access to that information, or was stupid and didn't realize there was a question to be asked?

Which is the simplest explanation?

(edit) what's odd georger, is that in the not too distant past, you were willing to theorize that Cooper must have known something about the timetables in order to plan his flight selection? You seem inconsistent in your thinking here? Is knowledge needed or are we just apes?

[377 22]

Quote

So if someone uses a behavior that is known to a small group, do we assume he just looked at something and deduced the behavior, didn't care and was a lunatic or willing to roll the dice on it, or had access to that information, or was stupid and didn't realize there was a question to be asked?

Cooper's flaps, altitude and speed requests (if accurately reported) argue against a couple of the alternatives above. They say Cooper knows something about planes. They hint Cooper knew about dropping stuff from planes.

377

2018 marks half a century as a skydiver. Trained by the late Perry Stevens D-51 in 1968.

[georger 247]

Quote

good points, georger.

But:

Most planes have doors in the back (or somewhere). Ventral or side?

So you're saying 727 was special choice or not special choice? Just random?


Reply> I dont know. Im not in Cooper's mind. But
it could have been random, or based on the time
of day and route, plus the aircraft. An overall opportunity based on several favors coming together
which spelled a unique opportunity, for him.

It does seem to me the 727 offered certain opportunities. Rear exit with lower risk of encountering wings or engines. Pilots have mentioned this before here. These lower risks would especially appeal to
a novice and seem commonsensical.


Was there any intelligence in side door exit vs ventral exit?

Reply> No, as I see it. Rear exist is the preferred choice.


Any theory is fine....although if such an exit was obvious to Cooper why not to others, earlier?

Reply> I dont think any theory is fine. I think common
sense and the simplest explanation has to rule here
because there is a palpable lack of evidence to prove
a more complex theory - and very simple requirements
must be fulfilled before anything more complex can apply in any event.

The man must apply basic problem solving in complying with basic principles 'before' anything more
complex could apply, if in fact something more complex does apply.

Example: he had to be able to know up from down,
rear from forward, fast vs slow, issues of timing ....
basic performance criteria. He had to comply with these
basic principles even if he had ten phd's and had worked for Boeing for 20 years!

If it turns out he satisfied some more complex judgement or action that requires experience or a credential, then and only then can something more
complex be attributed to him.

All he had to do was get on the plane, make his demands known, make a few requsts and make things
as low profile as possible, sit, wait, keep track, issue a
few new orders, get ready to bail, and then jump out
the hole (at the rear). Those few actions equal one
hijacking in this case. (The crew, FBI, NWA, etc did
all the work!)

He had his plan written out in concise demands. His
terms were simple (Obey or I blow you up! and he showed the bomb as proof). He selected Tina (great
selection on his part! He rejected Hancock and Schafner.) He didnt want the passengers alerted or
involved. He disappears to the lew at a crucial time.
His whole effort was to keep things simple and leave.

If he missed SEA (his original departure) he may have
targeted PDX or the Columbia next. This is a man with
a plan however informed or uninformd (experienced or
inexperienced) he was.

Everything indicates he had a plan when h got on that
plane and he knew where it was going (and maybe
coming from).

G.

• Quote

[snowmman 3]

well then georger, all you're pointing out is that all crime is very simple.

I could pick a dozen, seemingly complex skill crimes today, and execute them next week?

What would prevent me? knowledge? skill? fear?

Are you saying the only reason I don't do it, is because any financial gain is not sufficient motive to overcome the possible risks?

That the actual execution, is nothing?

[georger 247]

Quote

And how would Cooper know that 727s weren't manufactured with a device preventing in flight ventral door/stair deployment? Just seeing the door open on the ground tells you zero about possible in flight interlocks. The Cooper Vane is an easily visually spotted external mod, but Boeing could have gone for an electronic solution taking info from the air data computer and using it to lock the door.

I still think Cooper KNEW he could jump the 727.

377

The door was already cracked open at liftoff. He may
not of known, or he may have. The fact he wanted
door open and stairs down at liftoff shows he considered the issue. If he didnt know and they
had said the door must be closed to lift off and cant
be opened after airborn, then he would have been screwed. Just as he was screwed waiting for refueling
and screwed again getting the stairs out at liftoff,
then screwed again getting the stairs out fast after
liftoff .....

so its pretty obvious he didn't have the deep knowledge some think he had OR he wouldnt have
asked for door open and stairs down prior to liftoff.

But, yours is a damned good question and helps define the realities!

G.

[snowmman 3]

Tonight I re-enact the crime.
No not the hijack.

The reading of the Gunther book by Jo so so many years ago.

I just got a copy of the Gunter book in the mail.

Hey Jo, you were on me to read "Ha-Ha-Ha". I did.

Absolutely the worst writing I've ever read. Penthouse forum is a step up. Total trash. I must confess about 2/3rds of the way thru I skipped a number of pages.
Although it might loosely be the basis for a porn flick?
Debbie Does D.B.?

I look forward to Gunther!

[snowmman 3]

I've been watching this video of guys skydiving in 1966
at youtube (must have been transferred from 8mm?)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Cvx4MLNqgM

and I don't see any goggles. People are talking about goggles with knowledge of jet jumps. Cooper didn't have anyone's jet jump to reference at the time. So you'd expect he'd do what '60s era jumpers were doing.

When Cooper jumped, no one was doing civilian jet jumps.

I had understood that the lack of goggles was being used to label him whuffo.

How does that make sense? It seems to me that a '60s era jumper wouldn't have goggles.

I see jumpsuit and helmet.

So we know Cooper didn't ask for jumpsuit or helmet.
Hahneman did.

I believe Cooper asked for chest and back chutes, and that Tina miswrote "front" as the opposite to back.
All further notes and communications talked about "chest" chutes. I don't know if that came from ground comms or from Cooper. But I think the evidence is too weak to be confident Cooper asked for "front" chute.

"chest" is written 3 times in the stew notes

I'm looking for evidence that Cooper was whuffo. I know 377 acknowledged it's a secret flowchart, but I'm trying to figure it out.

Tina's description of him had ankle shoes.

So it's the suit and overcoat? But he knew enough to take his tie off.

Cooper apparently knew he'd need fuel while he was in the air. Maybe because he knew 305 was on the last leg of a cross-country itinerary?

He planned the timing for a twilight jump. close to half-moon?

Where is the lack of planning? The flight path? is that it?
10,000', flaps and wheels down, apparently 15 degree flaps specified.

There are about 25 individual elements to Cooper's plan/execution. The handful that could be argued "whuffo" could be argued either way.

It could also be argued that Cooper guessed/hoped that the plane would not be a lot worse than a regular jump at the time. He might not have accurate plane speed estimates. Why do we think Cooper would know what speed the plane would be at, exactly?

[georger 247]

Quote

Tonight I re-enact the crime.
No not the hijack.

The reading of the Gunther book by Jo so so many years ago.

I just got a copy of the Gunter book in the mail.

Hey Jo, you were on me to read "Ha-Ha-Ha". I did.

Absolutely the worst writing I've ever read. Penthouse forum is a step up. Total trash.

REPLY>? I TOLD YOU SO! YOU DESERVE IT!
One beer only for you tonite.




I must confess about 2/3rds of the way thru I skipped a number of pages.
Although it might loosely be the basis for a porn flick?
Debbie Does D.B.?

I look forward to Gunther!

[skyjack71 0]

Quote

Just trying to scope out the DBC forum's literary landscape.

Oh, and what's the latest on the NIGHT CLERK?

377

I fall on the bottom of the intellectual scale here and Night Clerk is doing well. I am having a hard time holding on to the bit and reins. If Carr doesn't do something soon I think Night Clerk
will come thru the gate without waiting for the buzzard..oops I think that is supposed to be spelled differently.


On a serious NOTE. The night clerk wants to go public, but I am the one saying NOT yet...let the FBI do what they have to do. Since Carr made his narrow minded statement about me - this indicates the FBI is NOT searching their records for the registration.

I only know what the night clerk told me - I can't investigate it - that is a job for the FBI...I also do NOT want to subject this person to what I have been thru.

this was the 1st time I let myself read what I wrote it in 1990. A series of things happened in 1990 - some of what may be linked to a specific sum of money that had been mentioned.

I also spent the better part of the last 3 days going thru negatives (fifty yrs of them). I thought negatives lasted for ever if you kept them in a dark dry place - some are not readable to the eye and a large flashlight.

I had a lot of memories in those negatives - a lot of tears, happiness, sorrow, broken hearts - it was a trips down memory lane. My albums have been divided many times over the yrs so I have my own collection to a minimum, but all the negatives.


By the way if the FBI did such an intense investigation of Duane Weber - why have they NEVER questioned the real Collins who lived at the address on the fake ID. I did, but the FBI did not. Was he broke into, did he loose his license or was it stolen?

Funny what you remember when you take the time to go back.

Copyright 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 2013, 2014, 2015 by Jo Weber

[georger 247]

Quote

well then georger, all you're pointing out is that all crime is very simple.

I could pick a dozen, seemingly complex skill crimes today, and execute them next week?

What would prevent me? knowledge? skill? fear?

Are you saying the only reason I don't do it, is because any financial gain is not sufficient motive to overcome the possible risks?

That the actual execution, is nothing?

Reply> Bailing was the hard part. The execution
easy. Like pearls falling off a necklace. The crew, NWA, FBI, all did exactly as he wanted. He sat and
smoked a few cigs. The beaurocracy did the heavy lifting, and quite frankly, the beaurocracy helped him vanish. I have a reason to believe he may
have suspected this was how it would go, what
may have given him impetus to try in the first place, so he may have simply used the system against
itself and squeaked out the door before people
could catch on.

The selection of the target may have been difficult
if it wasnt a total accident (but I dont think so). I
think our Cooper is a calculating man. Simply on
one hand but intelligent and mentally active underneath. He either saw a target and reconised
the opportunity and took the chance (saw the vulnerability), or he had been watching and planning
for some time until a flight like 305, at an opportune moment, occurred 'in his venue of
operation'.

There are very specific things he did which lead me
to this scenario.

On the other hand there are very specific things he did not do, or failed to do. I think our Cooper is quite bright, but is not 100% rational as say -
compared with Ckret!

Cooper could have been thinking about this for a
very long time - gestating within his grudge. Then
saw an opportunity and took it quickly. But he has
to be in the background to seize "this" opportunity.
We know this because of the quick sechedule change that brought this flight into existence. I
do not believe he was working up to picking any
flight at any time, or he wold have already hijacked
or robbed a bank, or something.

His execution seems flawless but in reality it was
a host of others who did all the real work. Cooper
merely sat with his bomb (and Tina).

Im not writing a novel here!

[georger 247]

Quote

I've been watching this video of guys skydiving in 1966
at youtube (must have been transferred from 8mm?)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Cvx4MLNqgM

and I don't see any goggles. People are talking about goggles with knowledge of jet jumps. Cooper didn't have anyone's jet jump to reference at the time. So you'd expect he'd do what '60s era jumpers were doing.

When Cooper jumped, no one was doing civilian jet jumps.

I had understood that the lack of goggles was being used to label him whuffo.

How does that make sense? It seems to me that a '60s era jumper wouldn't have goggles.

I see jumpsuit and helmet.

So we know Cooper didn't ask for jumpsuit or helmet.
Hahneman did.

I believe Cooper asked for chest and back chutes, and that Tina miswrote "front" as the opposite to back.
All further notes and communications talked about "chest" chutes. I don't know if that came from ground comms or from Cooper. But I think the evidence is too weak to be confident Cooper asked for "front" chute.

"chest" is written 3 times in the stew notes

I'm looking for evidence that Cooper was whuffo. I know 377 acknowledged it's a secret flowchart, but I'm trying to figure it out.

Tina's description of him had ankle shoes.

So it's the suit and overcoat? But he knew enough to take his tie off.

Cooper apparently knew he'd need fuel while he was in the air. Maybe because he knew 305 was on the last leg of a cross-country itinerary?

He planned the timing for a twilight jump. close to half-moon?

Where is the lack of planning? The flight path? is that it?
10,000', flaps and wheels down, apparently 15 degree flaps specified.

There are about 25 individual elements to Cooper's plan/execution. The handful that could be argued "whuffo" could be argued either way.

It could also be argued that Cooper guessed/hoped that the plane would not be a lot worse than a regular jump at the time. He might not have accurate plane speed estimates. Why do we think Cooper would know what speed the plane would be at, exactly?

Reply> question: were their prop based jumps
happening where the plane was going nearly 160
knots?. And a protocol for those kinds of jumps, if any? Is the jump from prop to jet really that great
given how Scott flew to accomodate Cooper. (I
wonder what jump conditions Scott was thinking
about trying to accomodate Cooper?)

G.

[snowmman 3]

Quote

On the other hand there are very specific things he did not do, or failed to do. I think our Cooper is quite bright, but is not 100% rational as say -
compared with Ckret!

Ok, I'm just going to report the results of the analysis by the PH-D's (nod to Tom) here.

All we know about the posters is what they post.

Analyzing it, the only rational poster appears to be 377. Even Sluggo doesn't tip the scale the right way.

In short, there is no evidence that Ckret is rational.

We don't know his goals, but if you analyze his posts, they seem to be at cross-purposes with any goals one can imagine? Therefore -> not rational.

And that's not saying anything negative. My posts are not rational. Many others aren't. 377 I think passes the Turing test.

[georger 247]

Quote

Quote

On the other hand there are very specific things he did not do, or failed to do. I think our Cooper is quite bright, but is not 100% rational as say -
compared with Ckret!

Ok, I'm just going to report the results of the analysis by the PH-D's (nod to Tom) here.

All we know about the posters is what they post.

Analyzing it, the only rational poster appears to be 377. Even Sluggo doesn't tip the scale the right way.

In short, there is no evidence that Ckret is rational.

We don't know his goals, but if you analyze his posts, they seem to be at cross-purposes with any goals one can imagine? Therefore -> not rational.

And that's not saying anything negative. My posts are not rational. Many others aren't. 377 I think passes the Turing test.

Reply> Ok. Free drink anyway but not of your choice.

Your 'rational is as rational does' test (The Forest Gump Test) has the wrong object/goals in mind.
If you do not weight the Turing machine then you
will come up with Linquist-Turing machine which as
we know LasCegas would not buy, because it favoured no house. Moreover could not even be
weighted to favour anything but a pure random outcome. (Now I know why! John Paulos refused to
join us here! Yes, I asked him to come.) Moreover, performance in posts is not 'performance in a hijack'. We are free-willed entities here. Nobody's
life or pile of cash is at stake, so far as I know but
I wouldnt even bank on that - these days.

Cooper's turns are weighted from the start by a series of choices. He walks on the plane like a normal person. Not there very long knowing no one he passes his Note to Schaffner and gets his first surprise. She pockets the note (not in her purse as the Mt. Sage Hearld Action Newz reported!). Cooper must remind her "read my damned note!". But, the crucial fact is his choice of communication is by note, not by voice. He is leaving nothing to chance which includes his own anticipation of his own actions
including his own frailties (which only he knows what they are!). ................. his next action soon to
come is getting rid of Schafner because he has
estimated her psychology in about 3 seconds. (The
same amount of time it takes for men and women to bond in a chance encounter if they are going to).

All estimates and facts are probabilities.

The Forest Gump Test is nonconclusive. (Godel
took it several steps further).

G.

[skyjack71 0]

Quote

Ok, I'm just going to report the results of the analysis by the PH-D's (nod to Tom) here.

All we know about the posters is what they post.

Analyzing it, the only rational poster appears to be 377. Even Sluggo doesn't tip the scale the right way.

In short, there is no evidence that Ckret is rational.

We don't know his goals, but if you analyze his posts, they seem to be at cross-purposes with any goals one can imagine? Therefore -> not rational.

And that's not saying anything negative. My posts are not rational. Many others aren't. 377 I think passes the Turing test.

The brilliant person who figures out why Cooper chose Portland will solve the case. He KNEW the area but was NOT known in the area. He had to jump where it would be unlikely anyone would have remembered him - any idiot would know that the officials would immediately be looking for a local.

So how can Cooper know the area and not expect to be recognized? Why do you think he chose Portland, Or to Seattle? We basically know he did not wear a disquise (a particial toupe, maybe) or go to any great lenghts (other than sun glasses) to obscure his ID. Ask yourself - WHY?

Answer the WHYS? We can hash the act itself over and over, but the WHYS have not been discussed in any length. WHY?

Copyright 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 2013, 2014, 2015 by Jo Weber

[snowmman 3]

"John Searle's 1980 paper Minds, Brains, and Programs proposed an argument against the Turing Test known as the "Chinese room" thought experiment. Searle argued that software (such as ELIZA) could pass the Turing Test simply by manipulating symbols of which they had no understanding. Without understanding, they could not be described as "thinking" in the same sense people do. Therefore—Searle concludes—the Turing Test cannot prove that a machine can think, contrary to Turing's original proposal."

Google provides the vast database of symbols. By manipulating those symbols, even without understanding them, one can mimic intelligence. All you need are the simple rules for manipulating the symbols.

What you interpret the result as, is up to you.

[snowmman 3]

Quote

Ask yourself - WHY?

Because he didn't stay in the US afterwards?

[HurlinGirlie 0]

Look at the video again. At 9:22, the jumpmaster, on the left is wearing googles.
I know of several jumpers who rarely wore googles for jumping, particularly if it was for a static line jump where the amount of time the jumper's face is exposed to higher wind speeds is pretty much limited to the few seconds spent on the step prior to exit.
Also, in the mid-60s, about the only googles available were the type used by snow skiers and other non-aviation activities that limited vision as much or more as the old open cockpit pilot's googles did.
It wasn't until the early 70s that light weight, non vision restricting googles really came on the scene.
My good friend Zing is highly entertained by the amount of overly complicated thinking a few of you are delving into since he got banned.
More in depth planning, additional equipment demands, etc. etc. leads to more loose ends for the LEOs to chase down.
Don't want to get caught for a caper? Then remember the KISS rule and stick to it.

[snowmman 3]

Hi Hurl,

Thanks. I think you might be confirming what I said, but my expectaton is, like the opinionating on NB6 vs Pioneer providing black/white determination to whuffoness, is that we have no data on what percentage of jumpers used goggles, broken down by year '62-70, and experience level (#jumps, types of jumps), or US vs non-US.

It's good providing the insight that "good" googles didn't appear until later.

All I wanted to say, was that the goggles thing was thrown in here early in the thread, and not questioned by jumpers, as far as I can tell. But I think it's more a reflection, of like I said before, that the thread just doesn't have the experience base back to early '60s.

So it's no foul. We just don't know stuff. Or didn't realize we didn't know.

(edit) I don't know Zing, but I thought I saw a post saying he had a heart attack? Is that not true?

[georger 247]

Quote

"John Searle's 1980 paper Minds, Brains, and Programs proposed an argument against the Turing Test known as the "Chinese room" thought experiment. Searle argued that software (such as ELIZA) could pass the Turing Test simply by manipulating symbols of which they had no understanding. Without understanding, they could not be described as "thinking" in the same sense people do. Therefore—Searle concludes—the Turing Test cannot prove that a machine can think, contrary to Turing's original proposal."

Google provides the vast database of symbols. By manipulating those symbols, even without understanding them, one can mimic intelligence. All you need are the simple rules for manipulating the symbols.

Reply> That is a sobering hard-won observation.
Contrary to what the empiracists predicted going
clear back to before WWII.

I have a friend who works for the robotics division
of a corporation - their toys are serious. After multiple
failures in the 80s they finally began dumbing down
their command algorithms and made appropriate mechanical changes. Success began to take form.
The amount of memory required began to level off.
Today they design dumb robots which perform well,
conduct routines flawlessly, and return without a hitch.

Sometimes simple is better.

There is a passage in the Transcript where Scott
speculates 'our friend in the back may the blueprints'
(paraphrasing). Consider the perspective if in fact
Cooper didnt have the blueprints. Scott is dealing
with complexity from many directions. Cooper is
sitting in the back ... merely sitting at the time ...
with Tina at his side. Cooper knew enough on some
level not to interfere. Scott was juggling multiple
levels of noise.

Cooper is the hijacker. Scott is unwilling Manager!
Their tasks are considerably different with different
levels of weight, up to the time of the bailout. Scott
will go on to land at Reno. Cooper may be dead torn
in pieces or deep in a grave.

But Cooper's routine works. It's a simple routine.

Cooper's routine may have been simple because
he planned it that way or because he was capable of
nothing more, or some combination of the two.

G.

• Quote

[georger 247]

Quote

Look at the video again. At 9:22, the jumpmaster, on the left is wearing googles.
I know of several jumpers who rarely wore googles for jumping, particularly if it was for a static line jump where the amount of time the jumper's face is exposed to higher wind speeds is pretty much limited to the few seconds spent on the step prior to exit.
Also, in the mid-60s, about the only googles available were the type used by snow skiers and other non-aviation activities that limited vision as much or more as the old open cockpit pilot's googles did.
It wasn't until the early 70s that light weight, non vision restricting googles really came on the scene.
My good friend Zing is highly entertained by the amount of overly complicated thinking a few of you are delving into since he got banned.

Reply> If he had stayed things would be simpler?
It was his choice, after all.

Dont read to much into overly complicated thinking.
Like workout before a jump. Nobody jumps cold!

G.



More in depth planning, additional equipment demands, etc. etc. leads to more loose ends for the LEOs to chase down.
Don't want to get caught for a caper? Then remember the KISS rule and stick to it.

[snowmman 3]

Quote

georger said:
Cooper's routine may have been simple because
he planned it that way or because he was capable of
nothing more, or some combination of the two.

Interesting thoughts, georger. But Cooper had limited knobs to turn. One could theorize, that he saw how prior hijackers tried to create new knobs, say with guns, weapons etc and failed. So he knew not to try that.

Sometimes the only knobs that work are very small ones, and time.

The mistake is in judging Cooper by the knobs he used. It assumes other knobs could have been more successful. All we know, is that the knobs Cooper used, worked. Therefore, Cooper was right.

We know hijackers who attempted to use/create other knobs failed. One could say we don't really know if Cooper succeeded. But unlike others, we're unsure if he failed.

Is the experimental database broad enough to deduce anything from that? No.

But that's life. So no use worrying about it.

I posted before, that Google is showing that potentially we don't need models any more. Models are always right to a degree but always wrong to a degree. Sometimes I wonder if you worry more about the model, than the result. Things like Google are creating the opportunity to say: "no models, just correlations"

No model can predict the future. If it could, people will change the future so it's not predictable.
We only use models cause we didn't have anything else.
It's getting close to the time to throw out models. They serve no purpose except to wrongly put a stamp of validation on bad thinking.

So while your thought above sounds good, it's better just to say "Who knows, doesn't matter"