olofscience
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Everything posted by olofscience
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Thanks! None of that refutes what I posted though.
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So what was the expected demand, and by how far did the projections miss by? If you're right, when will they cancel the EV factories?
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Nothing to do with them being renewables, but just a company being mismanaged: "Claudia Kemfert, an energy expert at the German Institute of Economic Research in Berlin, said that while Siemens’ wind power woes were “tragic” they were not emblematic of the wind industry, which was in good shape overall." “Wind power is literally on the rise globally,” Kemfert said. “The problems at Siemens Gamesa are homemade. The group must get a grip on quality problems. The fact that this has not been done to a sufficient degree to date is astonishing and must be changed.”
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But no expansion plans? They're doing a LOT of expansion plans for EVs. Delayed, as you keep crowing about, but not cancelled.
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As far as I know Tesla's stock price has a much higher P/E ratio than normal because investors have priced in 50% growth for several years. They're more like a tech stock right now, and I don't think that share price is sustainable, much less skyrocket even further. Well it's a standard - I don't think Tesla will earn any money (directly) as they offered their spec up for standardization. I don't think they have any "moat" here except their app - it's likely competitors will aggressively price under them and this will keep prices under control. Electricity is fairly cheap compared to gasoline, after all. The atrocious reliability of chargers so far is inexcusable given that they have no moving parts. This is mostly due to software, and at some point a startup will make one easy and reliable and bring the fight to Tesla.
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You actually haven't responded to lippy's point. Are they building new ICE factories? They just shut down their engine factory here in the UK.
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Do you know the difference between quarters and years? EV sales have slowed down compared to the last quarter. But as billvon has pointed out, they're up 50% since last year. Your link says car sales are up in the 3rd quarter compared to last year. By how much? 21%. Here's some more maths: 21% is less than 50%.
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Oh, I did. I pointed out your misrepresentation of the cause of the sales slowdown (it's not because they were EVs). You said "EVs remain a niche market for lefty effetes" and pointed to slowing down demand, but ALL cars (not just EVs) experienced slowing demand in 2023 because of high interest rates, which was highlighted by the end of the article you quoted. I then pointed out how you misquoted the IEA and the fossil fuel peak dates. So how about you, what can you contribute to this thread besides misinformation?
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Yes, you are allowed to assume the worst, you are allowed to assume anything really. Brent assumes that I live in my parents' basement and don't have an EV, but that's more for stroking his own ego than any connection to reality. Now, shall we get back to the topic?
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Sorry that you think that, but I don't think that's going to be solved by telling everyone here what car I drive. Because in a discussion about global EV sales, that IS a trivial thing.
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Oh, I definitely have. But why give him the same pleasure?
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That's one hell of a misquotation. The IEA has said fossil fuels will peak BEFORE 2030, with related energy generation CO2 emissions probably peaking by 2025.
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Why is his question fair? He just wants to make it personal. His dishonest arguments stand independently of whoever calls them out - you can call them out, and it wouldn't matter what kind of car, or yacht, you own as long as you pointed out the truth. In fact, some of the best takedowns of Brent have been from lippy, who works in the fossil fuel industry brent loves so much and shills so hard for. We all just have life to deal with and truth exists independently of people's circumstances.
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Sorry brent, I won't give you any personal details, you should find other friends Good try changing the topic, too. Looks like you've run out of actual arguments, so have a great rest of your weekend!
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FINALLY you tell us what you've been smoking. Newsflash, it's probably not good for you. Not sure what the laws in Florida are, but doing that in many other countries will certainly get you in trouble.
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You were implying the sales slowdown was because they were EVs. Now that you can't, you're just doing your usual slimy way of denying you said it and moving the goalposts.
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Again you're arguing dishonestly, as you left out the end of that article: "In the company's earnings call last week, Tesla CEO Elon Musk voiced his concerns that high interest rates are making it more difficult for consumers to afford buying a car and left the door open to further price cuts in the future." High interest rates are not caused by EVs.
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Actually cost of building an EV was a big issue in the recent UAW strikes. According to the Ford CEO, electric vehicles require 40% less labour to make: https://www.ft.com/content/8df00b42-4e3f-4a45-b665-2726720105e0 Although more recent studies have argued that it's not that simple - more labour hours are spent earlier in the supply chain for example (battery construction, etc) so they end up almost equal. But when the companies aggressively optimize this as they have for gasoline vehicles, they may eventually end up a lot cheaper.
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Oh look, a dishonest brent argument again...must be a day that ends in 'y'. Ford is building out factories and production lines for EVs, which is why they're spending a lot and making few EVs (that's why they're building factories, duh). So this random blogger on substack just divided their annual loss associated with these costs with the number of EVs sold (random blogger did it, because Brent can't do maths) and came up with the $60,000 number. It's like building a $1-billion silicon fab, which produces and sells its first chip on December 31st, then these idiots saying that each chip that year was sold at $999.999 million below the cost of production then declaring that the business model isn't sustainable.
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“Have you considered blowing up all of Lewiston to ensure you get the bad guy?” Israel asks US. (credit: a satire site)
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Let's just say your success record at making predictions is, well, absolutely abysmal. Russia taking Ukraine "by Sunday" in February last year? "Not going to be much longer" with the convoy to Kyiv? And don't say "you didn't take into account Western countries helping Ukraine", because you'd be an idiot to fail to predict that would happen. Oh wait...
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This is fair - Obama should have taken more action in 2014. The rest, however, is rubbish.
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Only if you've got something filling the space inside your skull. Ha!
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You're really not seeing the irony of accusing other people to be neo-nazis, are you?
